Canada Economics Update Expectations for second-half GDP growth too optimistic At slightly more than 2.0%, the latest consensus forecast for third-quarter annualised GDP growth looks too strong to us. Partly because of large negative carry-over effects from the second quarter... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Household net worth continues to rebound The Federal Reserve's latest financial accounts show that households continued to deleverage in the second quarter, while the increase in public sector debt was the smallest since the financial crisis... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug. 13) New home sales did not fully reverse July’s unexpectedly sharp drop. But August’s data seem consistent with our view that the rise in mortgage interest rates seen over recent months will cool, but not... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Market implications of yet another US debt-ceiling crisis The prospect of a US Federal government shutdown is likely to undermine equity prices further in the coming days, despite the possibility that the resulting uncertainty could prevent the US central... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The slightly better than expected 0.1% m/m rise in durable good orders in August is largely explained by an inexplicably small decline in commercial aircraft bookings. Otherwise, the modest rebounds... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Recovery appears to be gathering pace The Fed's apparently isn't convinced yet, but the improvement evident in many of the key forward-looking indicators suggests that economic growth is accelerating. The surge in both the manufacturing... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The recovery in July's retail sales volumes confirms that the economy rebounded from the dip in June. We suspect that GDP rebounded by 0.3% m/m in July, although we still think that GDP growth for the... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The modest drop in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low of 79.7 in September, from 81.8, reflects a combination of higher interest rates and lower equity prices... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Jul. 13) The latest rise in the annual rate of house price inflation in July may be the most eye-catching part of today’s Case-Shiller house price report. But the real story is a welcome slowdown in the... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update New home prices set to slow by more than existing home prices House price growth for new-build homes is set to slow more quickly than price growth for the existing housing stock over the next year, cutting into the price premium attached to a new home. 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy far from turning corner We think the Bank of Canada Governor's recent postulation about the economy turning the corner is misplaced. The recent weakness in merchandise exports, excess capacity utilisation and manufacturing... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed fails to understand that sometimes, less is more We were a little surprised by the Fed's conclusion last week that it wasn't ready to begin tapering its asset purchases. As we wrote in our Fed Watch ahead of the meeting, however, a tapering was "far... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Risk of Federal government shutdown can't be dismissed Congress is about to enter the critical stage of negotiations to extend the Federal government's spending authority, which will otherwise expire when the new fiscal year begins on 1st October, and, in... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) The increased slack in the economy kept underlying inflation under wraps in August. With economic growth likely to remain sluggish through the rest of this year and inflation expectations well... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The market implications of the FOMC's attitude to tapering We have reviewed our key market forecasts in light of the FOMC’s largely unexpected decision to delay a tapering of its asset purchases. The new numbers are presented in the tables on pages 1 and 2... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug. 13) The further rise in existing home sales in August may reflect a rush of sales from buyers keen to avoid any further rise in mortgage interest rates. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
