Canada Economic Outlook Housing to hold back economy As the export recovery is further delayed and housing activity softens, we expect Canada's economy to continue to struggle over the next two years. After growing by 1.6% this year, we forecast annual... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Aug.) & Housing Starts (Sep.) The unexpected widening of the trade deficit in August suggests that net trade will remain largely neutral for third-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate to be 2.0% annualised. With export volumes... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response NFIB Small Business Survey (Sep.) September’s NFIB survey suggests that small businesses became more downbeat on the prospects for the economy ahead of the Federal government shutdown. The longer the shutdown continues, the more... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market confidence taking a knock Mortgage interest rates are declining following the Fed’s decision not to taper in September. But most of the housing data continue to reflect the earlier hike in rates. Housing market confidence has... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown could continue until debt ceiling deadline Congress appears to be no closer to resolving the now week-old government shutdown. Our best guess is that a comprehensive agreement will be reached sometime close to the 17th October debt ceiling... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pent-up demand for new motor vehicles nearly exhausted The record new motor vehicle sales streak this year mainly reflects the ongoing unwinding of pent-up demand. With some pent-up demand still remaining, vehicle purchases are likely to improve somewhat... 4th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update On shutdown costs and the timing of a possible default The furloughing of 800,000 Federal employees, as part of the government shutdown that began today, will reduce spending by roughly $155 million per day. Over a whole year, the cost would be equivalent... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update US government shutdown shouldn't hurt Canada The US government shutdown should not have a material negative impact on Canada's economy. But if this political deadlock is any indication of how US policymakers will handle the much more important... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The further increase in the ISM manufacturing index to a 29-month high of 56.2 in September, from 55.7, reflects the recent improvement in both domestic and overseas economic conditions. While this... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Shutdown only the opening act in budget negotiations The economic impact of the Federal shutdown that began today all depends on how long it drags on and, in particular, whether the acrimonious stand-off in Congress spills over into the negotiations to... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug. 13) CoreLogic house prices for August paint a picture of a market that is losing some steam. Even so, there is little sign that higher mortgage interest rates are threatening to derail the housing... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) Canada's robust 0.6% m/m rebound in July suggests that the economy had more momentum at the start of the third quarter than we had previously thought. Accordingly, it now looks like the economy grew... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household spending splurge might continue The household spending splurge that prevented what would have otherwise been a poor economic showing last quarter may have been repeated this quarter. Although higher prices of food and transportation... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly This is no way to run a country Even if Congress can reach an agreement to renew the Federal government's spending authority before it expires this Monday, which is looking increasingly unlikely, there is a much more serious battle... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Could we be in for an upside payrolls surprise? The news of a modest 169,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, and the downward revision that cut July's gain to only 104,000, undoubtedly played a key role in the Fed's surprising decision to... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business survey suggests steady Q3 GDP growth In spite of the modest drop back in September, the CFIB's small business confidence suggests that annualised GDP growth in the third quarter is likely to match second-quarter’s 1.7% gain. This... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
