US Housing Market Update Is homebuilder confidence set for a weaker period? Homebuilder confidence may be on the verge of a weaker period. The good news is that previous rapid run-ups and subsequent moderations in homebuilder confidence have dampened, but not derailed... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The small decline in manufacturing sales volumes in August suggests that, after rebounding strongly in July, the economy grew by only 0.1% m/m in August. Nevertheless, given the strong start to the... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Loss of AAA ratings embarrassing, but probably little more The chaos in Washington has left the US at greater risk of losing its remaining AAA credit ratings even if an imminent default is avoided. However, while this would be a political embarrassment, the... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable are foreign investors to a default on Treasuries? Expectations were growing on Tuesday that US lawmakers would soon reach an agreement to extend the debt ceiling before the Treasury runs out of cash. But there is still an outside chance that a deal... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Senate edging closer to deal to reopen government The Senate appears to be edging closer to a deal to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling. There is a risk that the Republican-controlled House will initially reject that agreement... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response House Prices & Existing Home Sales (Sep.) The uptick in house price inflation, to 2.7% in September from 2.3% in August, is consistent with the reported decline in the supply of housing inventory. But with home sales being pulled forward in... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Delving into the Treasury’s spending schedule Despite the more promising tone of the recent discussions on Capitol Hill, there remains a risk that the debt ceiling will not be raised before Thursday. But a detailed look at the Treasury’s spending... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What impact would a US default have on Treasuries? In the event of the US government failing to service its debts, there are some good reasons to argue that Treasury yields would jump and others to suggest that they would actually fall. Our view is... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New housing activity spread signalling slowdown ahead The historically high number of housing units under construction justifies the current strength of construction employment. But the negative spread between housing starts and completions signals that... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Crunch time It’s good news that Congress appears to be moving towards a deal to raise the debt ceiling, but the solution currently being discussed is far from perfect. The biggest problem is that the Republican... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses losing confidence in economic outlook The latest Business Outlook Survey dealt another blow to the Bank of Canada's upbeat growth outlook. With businesses turning more cautious on the outlook for sales and capital investment, even our... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September's modest 11,900 increase in employment, mostly among younger workers, still suggests that the economy is struggling to generate any material improvement in broader labour market conditions... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Third-quarter GDP growth won't be sustained After being hit by floods and a major labour union strike at the end of the second quarter, Canada's economy rebounded sharply at the start of the third. For the third quarter as a whole, we now... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed minutes point to December taper, but that was pre-shutdown The minutes from the contentious FOMC meeting last month reveal that despite the decision to delay the tapering of its asset purchases, which was described as a "relatively close call", "most" Fed... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Filling in the data gaps Some of the less well-known private sector alternatives to the official statistical releases, which have been suspended for the duration of the Federal government shutdown, suggest that the economy... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How serious is the threat to housing from the shutdown? The Federal shutdown is so far proving to be an inconvenience, rather than a show stopper, for the housing market recovery. But the shutdown may become more problematic if the deadline for raising the... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
