US Chart Pack Policy uncertainty will persist for some time Congress has thankfully agreed to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling, but the short-term fix means that fiscal uncertainty will continue to act as a drag on the economic recovery... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The moderate increase in August retail sales volumes, after earlier reports showing unimpressive wholesale and manufacturing figures for that month, suggest that the economy might have struggled to... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The moderate increase in August retail sales volumes, after earlier reports showing unimpressive wholesale and manufacturing figures for that month, suggest that the economy might have struggled to... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep 13.) Our M3* measure of broad money, which replicates the series discontinued by the Fed, continued to grow at a healthy annual rate of nearly 6% in September. But the longer the Fed delays the tapering of... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep 13.) Despite the further decline in the unemployment rate to a five-year low of 7.2% in September, from 7.3%, the disappointing 148,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month will reinforce market... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Are higher mortgage rates a bigger threat than we thought? The steady rise in mortgage interest rates has weighed moderately on mortgage applications for home purchase and total home sales. Any fresh increase in mortgage rates would take a similar toll. While... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep. 13) The decline in existing home sales in September was driven by the steady rise in mortgage interest rates seen over the preceding months. If the timelier new home sales figures are any guide, this set... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is business investment turning a corner? We estimate that stronger business investment growth of close to 7.0% annualised helped to boost third-quarter GDP growth, possibly slightly above 2.0% annualised. It is important to stress, however... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly New budget committee not necessarily DOA The new budget conference committee has been written off as dead on arrival by most people before it even starts work. Given the dysfunctional state of Congress and the failure of the deficit... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary policy now a slave to fiscal uncertainty Even if Congress manages to keep the Federal government open and raise the debt ceiling next year, the continuing fiscal uncertainty is only going to make the Fed's job that much harder. That fiscal... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) September's slightly weaker than expected core inflation reading is consistent with the increase in economic slack over the past year. With the Bank of Canada's export-led recovery hopes likely to... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Calm returns, for now The past month has brought signs of stabilisation across the emerging world. EM financial markets largely shrugged off concerns over a possible US default and regained some of their lost ground... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Debt-ceiling crisis has done lasting damage The lukewarm market reaction to the end of the US government shutdown and the suspension of the debt ceiling can largely be explained by the fact that the chances of default were already assumed to be... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Don't expect a flood of economic reports It will be some weeks yet before all of the economic data releases that were postponed during the government shutdown are published. As the shutdown will have severely delayed the collection process... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Short-term debt ceiling fix still leaves plenty of uncertainty Financial markets have been buoyed by media reports indicating that both the Senate and the House are preparing to vote imminently on a bill to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Economic growth outlook likely to be downgraded We don't expect the Bank of Canada to make any major changes in next week's policy statement (Wednesday, 23rd October). While weak exports and business confidence are likely to have prompted some... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
