US Employment Report Preview Accounting for the government shutdown The Federal government shutdown won't have had a major bearing on payroll employment, which we estimate rose by around 140,000 in October. But it will have put a dent in the alternative household... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed waits for the fog to clear The latest policy statement from the Fed today is remarkable for what it omits rather than includes. There is no explicit mention of the government shutdown or what impact it might have on the economy... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update The truth probably lies in between the survey evidence Depending on which of the survey measures you believe, either the economic recovery is about to take off or fade away completely. The fundamentals, however, suggest that the truth probably lies... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & ADP Payrolls (Oct.) The decline in CPI inflation in September and signs of weaker jobs growth in October support the now widespread view that the Fed won’t begin to taper its monthly asset purchases until next year. 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The sharp drop in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a six-month low of 71.2 in October, from 80.2, probably reflects the impact from the shutdown. (The survey period ended on... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Aug.) The solid rise in the Case-Shiller house price index confounded expectations from some corners that price growth was set to slow further in August. But it does not rule out a slowdown in house price... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep.) September’s retail sales figures suggest that consumption growth gained momentum at the end of the third quarter. And the government shutdown is unlikely to have changed the picture too much at the... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Industrial production gained some momentum in September and, once the hit from the government shutdown has passed, industry should be supported by the modest global recovery and the fall in the dollar... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Can America's debt problem be solved? It's ironic that the recent government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis came at a time when America's debt situation is improving. Over the next decade, a combination of faster GDP growth and only a... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Capacity constraints won't threaten higher inflation for years In addition to downgrading its economic outlook last week and postponing when it expects the economy to return to full capacity until late 2015, the Bank of Canada also lowered its estimate of... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What's behind the slowdown in jobs growth? A satisfactory explanation for the easing in jobs growth is hard to find, but a fading of the fiscal drag and a further pick up in overseas demand means it probably won’t be sustained for long. We... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) Despite the better than expected 3.7% m/m jump in durable goods orders in September, which was almost entirely due to a bounce back in the volatile aircraft category, it appears that third-quarter... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Don't write off the dollar The crisis over the debt ceiling, the prospect of “QEternity”, and some recent evidence that foreign investors have been selling US assets have all revived talk that the dollar is facing a prolonged... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch QEternity? The two-week government shutdown means that the Fed is almost certain to leave the pace of its monthly asset purchases unchanged at its two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on 30th October. The... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The monthly trade deficit was basically unchanged at $38.8bn in August, suggesting that net external trade had a neutral impact on overall third-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was near 2.0%... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada throws in towel The Bank of Canada's decision to downgrade its economic outlook and drop its vague tightening bias supports our view that if there is any change in monetary policy over the near-term, it would be to... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
