US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The much bigger than expected 204,000 gain in October's non-farm payrolls, combined with a cumulative 60,000 upward revision to the gains in the two preceding months will mostly definitely increase... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The further drop in the University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence to a two-year low of 72.0 in November, from 73.2, is hard to explain given that the government reopened, the labour market... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The pick-up in third-quarter GDP growth to 2.8% annualised, from 2.0%, was largely due to a bigger than expected boost from inventory accumulation, which added 0.8% points to the headline figure. At... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Energy rebound boosts third-quarter GDP growth Canada's economic growth appears to have accelerated to close to 2.5% annualised in the third quarter, the fastest pace in two years, thanks partly to a rebound in energy production. With other... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 13) The latest dip in mortgage approvals offers further evidence of a moderation in the rate of the housing recovery. But if the wider economic recovery picks up speed next year as we expect, mortgage... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the Fed taper be a game-changer? The question of exactly when the US Fed will start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 has understandably been the focus of much analysis and speculation (including by ourselves). There are six... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership and Vacancy Rate (Q3 13) The homeownership rate ticked up in the third quarter of the year. But the recent drop in home sales and mortgage demand, as well as the fact that the rise was driven by older households, suggests... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Limited upside for the US stock market The US stock market has performed strongly since the end of August, with the S&P 500 posting a total return of nearly 9%. However, we think the index will struggle to make further headway and forecast... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep. 13) The CoreLogic house price index suggests that the recent easing in house price pressures went into reverse during September. But with signs that the rise in interest rates has had a more pronounced... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising borrowing costs hit demand for loans The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey shows that even though banks are still prepared to increase the supply of credit, the recent surge in long-term borrowing costs has undermined the demand... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's descent not over The recent pullback in the Canadian dollar owes more to weaker domestic fundamentals rather than volatile commodity prices. With domestic economic conditions likely to remain sluggish through next... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recovery slowly gathering momentum as fiscal drag fades The incoming data suggest that labour market conditions remain soft, but the wider economic recovery does appear to be strengthening, as the severity of the fiscal drag begins to fade. Admittedly, our... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The unexpected rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half-year high of 56.4 in October, from 56.2, suggests that manufacturers weren't notably affected by the government shutdown. The... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus EU trade deal would provide only modest benefits The Canadian government's new free trade agreement with the EU, should it be ratified, will provide only modest economic benefits. Since this ratification will take a year or two, the trade deal does... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Aug.) The stronger than expected 0.3% m/m increase in August GDP suggests that the economy grew by close to 2.5% annualised in the third quarter, stronger than our previous estimate of 2.0%. But since much... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Has the outlook for existing home sales changed? The drop in the pending home sales numbers for September suggests that the immediate outlook for existing home sales is weak. We have therefore revised down our whole-year forecasts for 2013. The... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
