US Housing Market Chart Pack Loosening supply conditions foreshadow price slowdown New home sales shook off earlier weather effects to post a strong gain in January. Although existing home sales fell again, they should also recover before too long. Nevertheless, the bigger picture... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What are the relative prospects for euro-zone and US bonds? The risks of deflation in the euro-zone, particularly in light of the ECB’s continued inaction last Thursday, should keep the yields on ten-year core euro-zone government bonds well below those on US... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Pick-up in wage growth may be genuine It will be a few months yet before we know for sure whether or not the recent pick-up in wage growth is just a temporary distortion caused by the unusually severe weather, but it does chime with the... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Economy will bounce back from weather disruption The unusually severe winter has been playing havoc with the incoming economic data but, once the weather returns to seasonal norms, we expect the US economy to perform strongly this year and in 2015... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly ACA makes consumption look healthier The Affordable Care Act, or “Obamacare”, remains a contentious piece of legislation, but the fact of the matter is that it boosted real consumption growth in January and will probably support it in... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada takes more hawkish line The recent rise in inflation prompted the Bank of Canada to take a slightly more hawkish stance in its policy statement last week. At 1.5% in January, inflation is still well below the mid-point of... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) & Int. Trade (Jan.) The fact that payroll employment rebounded in February despite the unusually bad weather pretty much guarantees that the Fed will taper its asset purchases further at the mid-March policy meeting. 7th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) & Int. Trade (Jan.) The 7,000 decline in employment in February specifically is not a major concern since the unusually severe winter may have played a role. Nevertheless, the broader picture is that employment has been... 7th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada maintains neutral bias Although the Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 1.0% today and maintained its neutral bias, we suspect that the emphasis on the recent rebound in inflation in the accompanying statement... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update State & local government spending will soon rebound We’re not very concerned by the recent decline in State and local government spending when States’ own spending plans are consistent with a decent rebound both this year and next. This will compliment... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb. 14) The drop in mortgage applications for home purchase in February, which could be related to the introduction of new mortgage lending rules during the previous month, mean that applications are at rock... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) The first CoreLogic house price reading of 2014 suggests that prices started the year on a strong note. But this figure reflects supply and demand conditions from several months ago. The recent... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Higher natural gas price may boost mining investment The biggest and longest-lasting impact from the recent rise in natural gas prices could be a boost to business investment in mining structures. That could add 0.3 percentage points to annual GDP... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Lower Canadian dollar points to rebound in inflation Although inflation has been uncomfortably low for some time now, the risk of a slide into deflation is still fairly modest. Long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored and the Canadian... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) While the ISM manufacturing index rebounded to 53.2 in February, from 51.3, the extent of the increase was limited because of the ongoing severe winter weather. We expect a further improvement in... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rebalancing still a distant pipe dream The Bank of Canada admitted in January's monetary policy statement that "there have been few signs of the anticipated rebalancing towards exports and business investment." Not much has changed since... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
