US Economics Weekly Is the housing recovery crumbling? Most of the recent weakness in housing activity is due to the unusually bad weather rather than the lagged effects of last year’s rise in mortgage rates. While higher mortgage rates have clearly taken... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) The pick-up in core inflation to 1.4% in January, from 1.3%, reflects both base-year effects and possibly some early impact from the weaker Canadian dollar. The latter is something that we anticipate... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q4 13) Among the recent weather-hit housing market activity data, the further improvement in the mortgage delinquency and foreclosure picture is a timely reminder that the fundamentals of the housing market... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan. 14) It’s possible that the unusually bad weather is masking a strengthening in underlying consumer price pressure that will only become clear in a few months’ time. Despite the fall to 1.6% in January... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Producer Prices (Jan.) The revamp of the producer prices data has made the release much more comprehensive, but it hasn’t changed the bigger picture. There is not much sign of any near-term inflationary pressure. 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Outlook for US equities is brighter than for bonds We think US equities are set to fare better than bonds in the coming years. The outperformance is likely to be less than the historical average. But we still think it could be quite substantial. 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan. 14) The sharp fall in housing starts in January looks like further payback following November’s surge, combined with weather-related disruption. So while 2014 has got off to an unpromising beginning, we... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Broad money growth appears to have stabilised, with our measure of the M3 aggregate rebounding slightly to 4.6% in January, from 4.4%. (See Chart below.) Elsewhere, the slowdown in the growth rate of... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing starts likely to fall further this year Although housing starts have declined over the past two years, the current six-month annualised trend of 191,456 units is arguably still above demographic requirements. With weakening home sales and... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) The discouraging decline in December's manufacturing sales volumes and downward revision to the previous month dampens our view that the improving outlook overseas may finally be filtering through to... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will mortgage demand recover this year? Mortgage demand is struggling to shake off the impact of last year’s jump in mortgage interest rates. But providing that the wider economic and labour market recovery remain on track, we see no reason... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s industrial production data join a growing list of economic releases affected by the unusually bad weather. Given that the weather has been just as severe in February, the lost output may not... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Bad US weather driving commodity prices in unexpected ways Adverse weather is affecting US commodity prices in some obvious and some more surprising ways. As would be expected, the prices of energy and some agricultural commodities have surged. But less... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Making sense of the weather effect Our best guess is that the severe weather has played a key role in the apparent deterioration in the incoming economic data for December and January. With much of the country currently digging out... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Pending home sales tumble again The recovery in housing market activity has taken a knock. Existing home sales edged up in December, but the pending home sales index recorded a worrying slump. New home sales fell substantially in... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) Some of the weakness in retail sales in January was probably due to the bad weather. Nonetheless, it looks as though GDP growth in both the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
