US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar 14.) The below-expectations increase in housing starts in March, which made up for only one-fifth of earlier weather-related falls, suggests that the shortage of labour and lots is constraining the... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar 14.) The rebound in CPI inflation to 1.5% in March, from 1.1%, is partly due to the reversal of the base effects that pushed it down in February. Nonetheless, more permanent trends will lift both headline... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canadian oil no longer selling at a discount The steady rise in Canadian oil prices over the past few months has, in the case of light sweet crude, left them back on par with international benchmarks. Canada's energy producers have benefitted... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Feb.) Despite the rebound in manufacturing sales volumes in February, the significant downward revisions to sales in the two preceding months confirm that bad weather dampened economic growth in the first... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Mar.) The decline in the Teranet measure of house price inflation to 4.6% in March, from 5.0%, reflects the earlier drop back in existing home sales. We expect sales to continue falling, eventually... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook West to outperform East The world economy should expand steadily in the coming two years, helped by an increasingly strong recovery in the US. However, while the euro-zone has stabilised, it is not growing fast enough to... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The leap in retail sales in March is mainly due to the unwinding of the distortion caused by the unusually bad weather in previous months. This means first-quarter real consumption growth was probably... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Markets shouldn't place so much trust in the Fed The markets have begun to heed the Fed’s bizarre warnings to ignore its own interest rate projections. But they shouldn’t be so trusting, especially when the minutes of the mid-March FOMC meeting... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada stuck between a rock and a hard place Canada's economic performance over the second half of last year was slightly stronger than the Bank of Canada had assumed at the start of the year, but there have been few signs of the rotation in... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lower jumbo-conforming spread a positive for mortgage lending The unprecedented negative spread between jumbo and conforming mortgage interest rates did not last for long. But the normalisation of the gap between jumbo and conforming rates marks an important... 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The rise in consumer confidence in April reflects a reversal of the earlier weather-related hit to confidence, as well as record high stock markets and improving labour market conditions. These... 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Activity measures will strengthen again soon The recent housing market activity data have been weak more or less across the board, with new and existing homes sales, as well as housing starts, all declining in February. These falls were largely... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain on the sidelines for time being We anticipate that the Bank of Canada will retain its neutral bias on rates in next week's policy statement, although some dovish tweaks might surprise markets. Economic growth remains unbalanced... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Latest labour market data refute Yellen's slack claims The latest round of jobs data released over the past few days would appear to refute Fed Chair Janet Yellen's recent claims that there is still considerable slack in the labour market. 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing downturn will drag on for much longer The recent slowdown in housing starts is just the beginning of a long-term correction that will dampen economic growth this year and next. If, as we expect, new home sales soften further, in response... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence improves amidst uncertain outlook The modest improvement evident in the Bank of Canada's spring Business Outlook Survey is an encouraging sign, but doubts remain about the near-term outlook for exports and softening domestic demand... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
