US Housing Market Update Too early to call the end of the housing recovery It is too early to take the weakening in activity as evidence that the housing recovery is over. The soft numbers could plausibly be the result of the temporary slowdown in job growth, the recent... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) Although durable goods orders rose by a decent 2.6% m/m in March, the details of the survey suggest that the growth rate of business investment in equipment slowed down to roughly 2.0% annualised in... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Breaking out above 200,000 The monthly gains in payroll employment may soon rise above the 200,000 that have been the norm for most of the past year. This would be partly due to some catch-up after the recent extreme winter... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar 14.) The plunge in new home sales in March raises difficult questions about the sustainability of the housing recovery. But with other parts of the economy starting to shrug off the winter malaise, we are... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Short-handed Fed sticking to the tapering plan The two-day FOMC meeting that concludes next Wednesday (30th April) is likely to be a quiet affair for two reasons: The Fed made key changes to its forward guidance at the last meeting in mid-March... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The trivial rise in retail sales volumes in February suggests that spending was probably still being held back by the unusually severe winter weather. Nonetheless, after accounting for the better... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Productivity growth held back by structural problems The slowdown in trend productivity growth, which began a decade ago, is principally due to two structural factors; the fading boost from the IT revolution and the aging of the population. The... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.14) The latest small decline in existing home sales cannot easily be passed off as weather-related weakness, as those regions which suffered most from the severe weather saw sales bounce back in March... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack GDP growth to bounce back in Q2 The incoming data over the past few weeks suggest that activity and employment rebounded in March, as the weather-related distortion that affected the winter months began to unwind. Our latest... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Looser credit conditions, lower loan rates and the stronger economic outlook have continued to boost bank lending to businesses. This supports our view that business investment growth will accelerate... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Q2 economic rebound will mask deteriorating fundamentals As the effects of the severe winter weather subside in the second quarter, the resulting bounce back in GDP growth could be misinterpreted as a sign of improving fundamentals rather than a short-lived... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy shrugging off winter malaise The more data we see on economic activity in March, the more we're reassured that the drop-off in the preceding few months was almost entirely due to the unseasonably severe winter weather. 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) While headline inflation rebounded to 1.5% in March, from 1.1%, the uptick was due to higher energy prices and base year effects. In contrast, core inflation climbed only slightly to 1.3% last month... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is there a bubble in technology stocks? One reason for the sell-off in the US stock market in the first half of this month appears to have been concern that valuations in the technology sector are stretched. But there is little evidence to... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The Bank of Canada retained its neutral rate bias in its latest policy statement and emphasised that, despite the lower Canadian dollar, core inflation will still take about two years to return to... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar 14.) With industrial production rising at a decent pace in March, the economy is now starting to show its true colours after the weakness triggered by the bleakest of winters. There is scope for production... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
