US Economics Weekly Farmland: Is the bubble bursting? The rapid run-up in the price of farmland appears to be over. We suspect that the slowdown in the growth rate of farmland prices last year will develop into an outright decline in prices this year, at... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) Employment increased by a robust 42,900 in March, driving the unemployment rate down to a four-month low of 6.9%, from 7.0%. Unfortunately, the bulk of the net jobs created last month were apparently... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The solid 192,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March, along with the bounce back in average weekly hours worked to a four-month high of 34.5, from 34.3, confirms that the recent spate of weakness... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack US rebounds but China and Japan slowing The global economy is healing, but the pace of recovery differs markedly between countries. The US is now rebounding from its weather-induced slowdown and the euro-zone is steadily gaining momentum... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Dwindling spare capacity will provide boost to investment There are finally reasons to expect a more sustained pick-up in business investment this year and next. Admittedly, economists have been forecasting that business investment would become a driving... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) February's merchandise trade report, which revealed only a partial rebound in export volumes, can be partly blamed on bad weather. Nevertheless it still seems that Canada's economy isn't benefitting... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The unexpected widening in the monthly trade deficit to a five-month high of $42.3bn in February, from $39.3bn, suggests that first-quarter GDP growth was only 1.5% annualised, lower than our previous... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Autos and ACA enrolees support consumption growth The rebound in auto sales in March and the rush to sign up for health insurance in recent weeks means that the slowdown in real consumption growth in the first quarter may not be as marked as... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.14) The slight increase in mortgage applications for home purchase in March was a step in the right direction. But mortgage demand will have to rise much more strongly than this if mortgage-dependent... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The trivial increase in the ISM manufacturing index to 53.7 in March, from 53.2, suggests that the sector is slowly recovering from the weather-related disruption at the start of the year. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) The CoreLogic measure reported that house prices continued to rise rapidly in February. However, the recent loosening in supply conditions suggests that runaway house price inflation will not continue... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gulf between US & German bond yields looks set to widen The spread between the yields of 10-year US and German government bonds is close to the largest it has been since the start of EMU. But we think the spread will continue to grow. With this in mind, we... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update PCE inflation won't be this low for long The fall in PCE inflation to just 0.9% in February probably marks the low point in this cycle and we suspect that the Fed will be surprised by how fast inflation rebounds over the next 18 months. 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The stronger than expected 0.5% m/m rebound in January's GDP, which fully reversed December's weather-related contraction, suggests that bad weather had a smaller effect on first-quarter activity than... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mortgage rate cuts won't trigger housing rally The decision by Canada's large banks to cut fixed mortgage rates ahead of the typically busy Spring home buying season won't boost sagging home sales. With housing so unaffordable, mortgage rates... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly No need to stress about the banks While a handful of banks “failed” the Fed’s latest stress tests, the sector as a whole has enough capital to continue lending to domestic businesses and households even if it had to absorb further... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
