US Economics Update Fed's survey points to strong growth in business loans The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey illustrates the remarkable divergence between bank loans to businesses, which have increased by nearly 9% over the past year, and bank residential mortgages... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Stress-testing the US economy against a recession in China Even if China endured a financial crisis and a recession, the hit to the US economy would probably be fairly small. China is just not that important to America’s banks, businesses and investors. We... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Regional disparity a dilemma for the Bank of Canada Canada's uneven regional economic performance presents a dilemma for the Bank of Canada. While natural resource-rich provinces flourished last year, those that are reliant on manufacturing struggled... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The above-consensus 288,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April and the corresponding drop in the unemployment rate to a four-and-a-half-year low of 6.3% underline why the markets and the Fed were... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low stocks will put upward pressure on US natural gas prices Extremely low levels of natural gas stocks in the US are likely to put upward pressure on prices over the rest of this year and potentially even into 2015. 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The further rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a four-month high of 54.9 in April, from 53.7, illustrates that the factory sector is still getting back to normal after the earlier weather-related... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed continues with gradual QE taper As expected, the near-stagnation in first-quarter GDP growth wasn't enough to prevent the Fed from tapering its asset purchases by an additional $10bn, to $45bn per month, at the FOMC meeting that... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is China about to "overtake" the US? The significance of revised purchasing power parity estimates, which suggest that China’s total GDP may overtake that of the US as soon as this year, is not as great as some of the headlines imply... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) February's consensus-matching 0.2% m/m increase in GDP, together with small upward revisions to earlier figures, suggest that first-quarter GDP growth will turn out to be close to 2.0% annualised... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The unexpectedly weak 0.1% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP growth, which was markedly below the consensus forecast of a 1.2% gain, was principally due to the unusually severe winter weather. As... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low quality jobs and rising prices constrain spending February's payroll figures suggest that nominal wages and salaries growth slowed in the first quarter and discouraging job quality trends suggest that wages might not improve much in this quarter... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The slight drop in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence, to 82.3 in April from 83.9, appears to have been due to weaker labour market conditions. As this decline was trivial and... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q1/Feb. 14) The increase in the share of households renting to a 19-year high in Q1, and the low supply of homes entering the rental market, look like boons for both rental value growth and multi-family... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising retail gasoline prices no conundrum The recent jump in gasoline prices isn’t a conundrum. Several explanatory factors are at play, including seasonal effects. But for the most part, rising gasoline prices reflect higher refinery crude... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Can the recovery continue without housing? The apparent crumbling in the housing recovery has, at least temporarily, removed a valuable support to GDP growth. But the wider economic recovery will carry on regardless and it may not be long... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower Canadian dollar no panacea Canada’s economic underperformance will continue as competitiveness challenges restrain exports and the slowdown in housing intensifies. We expect GDP to increase by 2.0% in 2014, before slowing to... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
