Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Mar.) Manufacturing continued to recover in March from the severe winter that dampened sales volumes late last year. With sales almost fully recovered now, we expect further gains to be more modest, as... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Apr.) A widespread pick up in price pressures is now underway, which we think will result in both the CPI and PCE measures of core inflation rising above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, the fall in... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Do rising term premia pose a threat to US Treasuries? Some observers appear to be concerned that the onset of US monetary tightening will drive up long-term Treasury yields via a substantial increase in “term premia”. But a new set of unofficial data... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Apr.) Although the Teranet measure of house price inflation ticked up to 4.9% in April, from 4.6%, the earlier decline in existing home sales suggests some moderation in house price gains this year. Our... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr 14.) April’s retail sales release suggested that GDP growth in the first quarter was a bit stronger than previously thought, but that the rebound in the second quarter may turn out to be a little smaller... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Positive signs on home sales and mortgage lending Fed Chair Janet Yellen expressed worries about the resilience of the housing recovery in her testimony to Congress last week. But the recent sales and mortgage lending figures have been more... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's export engine still spluttering Canada's exports have continued to underperform, despite gradually improving US economic conditions and the fall in the previously high-flying Canadian dollar. Although the bad weather partly explains... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Banks lending more freely The rapid expansion in bank loans since the turn of the year is a sure sign that the economic outlook is brighter than the stagnation in first-quarter GDP growth suggested. Loans to businesses are... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Dollar-denominated bond yields to drift up this year The “stripped” spread of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index has dropped below 300 basis points for the first time in about a year. However, we forecast the spread to rebound as less accommodative US monetary... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's unexpected 28,900 decline in net employment suggests that the economy remained stuck in the slow lane last quarter, hampered by an underperforming export sector and a housing slowdown... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the US stock market ride out a shift in Fed policy? The cost of corporate equity is much lower than the cost of corporate debt in the US. This is very different to the situation that prevailed during the dot com bubble and is a reason to think that the... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.14) The rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in April, alongside the recent pick-up in the Fed’s measure of the value of residential mortgage lending, are encouraging signs that mortgage... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) While Canada's external merchandise trade surplus shrunk unexpectedly in March, from a bigger than previously estimated surplus in February, the more discouraging news was the declines in export and... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update QE taper does not explain Q1 GDP weakness A few commentators have suggested that the weakness in first-quarter GDP, which may even have contracted slightly, could be due to the Fed's decision late last year to begin tapering its monthly asset... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The modest decline in the trade deficit to $40.4bn in March, from $41.9bn, was a smaller narrowing than the BEA had assumed in its initial estimate of first-quarter GDP growth. Accordingly, when added... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) House price gains have held steady at 11%-12% y/y for a year now. But the tight supply conditions which have driven these gains are now loosening, pointing to a moderation in price rises before too... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
