Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The trivial rise in retail sales volumes in February suggests that spending was probably still being held back by the unusually severe winter weather. Nonetheless, after accounting for the better... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Productivity growth held back by structural problems The slowdown in trend productivity growth, which began a decade ago, is principally due to two structural factors; the fading boost from the IT revolution and the aging of the population. The... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.14) The latest small decline in existing home sales cannot easily be passed off as weather-related weakness, as those regions which suffered most from the severe weather saw sales bounce back in March... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack GDP growth to bounce back in Q2 The incoming data over the past few weeks suggest that activity and employment rebounded in March, as the weather-related distortion that affected the winter months began to unwind. Our latest... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Looser credit conditions, lower loan rates and the stronger economic outlook have continued to boost bank lending to businesses. This supports our view that business investment growth will accelerate... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Q2 economic rebound will mask deteriorating fundamentals As the effects of the severe winter weather subside in the second quarter, the resulting bounce back in GDP growth could be misinterpreted as a sign of improving fundamentals rather than a short-lived... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy shrugging off winter malaise The more data we see on economic activity in March, the more we're reassured that the drop-off in the preceding few months was almost entirely due to the unseasonably severe winter weather. 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) While headline inflation rebounded to 1.5% in March, from 1.1%, the uptick was due to higher energy prices and base year effects. In contrast, core inflation climbed only slightly to 1.3% last month... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is there a bubble in technology stocks? One reason for the sell-off in the US stock market in the first half of this month appears to have been concern that valuations in the technology sector are stretched. But there is little evidence to... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The Bank of Canada retained its neutral rate bias in its latest policy statement and emphasised that, despite the lower Canadian dollar, core inflation will still take about two years to return to... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar 14.) With industrial production rising at a decent pace in March, the economy is now starting to show its true colours after the weakness triggered by the bleakest of winters. There is scope for production... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar 14.) The below-expectations increase in housing starts in March, which made up for only one-fifth of earlier weather-related falls, suggests that the shortage of labour and lots is constraining the... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar 14.) The rebound in CPI inflation to 1.5% in March, from 1.1%, is partly due to the reversal of the base effects that pushed it down in February. Nonetheless, more permanent trends will lift both headline... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canadian oil no longer selling at a discount The steady rise in Canadian oil prices over the past few months has, in the case of light sweet crude, left them back on par with international benchmarks. Canada's energy producers have benefitted... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Feb.) Despite the rebound in manufacturing sales volumes in February, the significant downward revisions to sales in the two preceding months confirm that bad weather dampened economic growth in the first... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Mar.) The decline in the Teranet measure of house price inflation to 4.6% in March, from 5.0%, reflects the earlier drop back in existing home sales. We expect sales to continue falling, eventually... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
