US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The further rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a four-month high of 54.9 in April, from 53.7, illustrates that the factory sector is still getting back to normal after the earlier weather-related... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed continues with gradual QE taper As expected, the near-stagnation in first-quarter GDP growth wasn't enough to prevent the Fed from tapering its asset purchases by an additional $10bn, to $45bn per month, at the FOMC meeting that... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is China about to "overtake" the US? The significance of revised purchasing power parity estimates, which suggest that China’s total GDP may overtake that of the US as soon as this year, is not as great as some of the headlines imply... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) February's consensus-matching 0.2% m/m increase in GDP, together with small upward revisions to earlier figures, suggest that first-quarter GDP growth will turn out to be close to 2.0% annualised... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The unexpectedly weak 0.1% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP growth, which was markedly below the consensus forecast of a 1.2% gain, was principally due to the unusually severe winter weather. As... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low quality jobs and rising prices constrain spending February's payroll figures suggest that nominal wages and salaries growth slowed in the first quarter and discouraging job quality trends suggest that wages might not improve much in this quarter... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The slight drop in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence, to 82.3 in April from 83.9, appears to have been due to weaker labour market conditions. As this decline was trivial and... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q1/Feb. 14) The increase in the share of households renting to a 19-year high in Q1, and the low supply of homes entering the rental market, look like boons for both rental value growth and multi-family... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising retail gasoline prices no conundrum The recent jump in gasoline prices isn’t a conundrum. Several explanatory factors are at play, including seasonal effects. But for the most part, rising gasoline prices reflect higher refinery crude... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Can the recovery continue without housing? The apparent crumbling in the housing recovery has, at least temporarily, removed a valuable support to GDP growth. But the wider economic recovery will carry on regardless and it may not be long... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower Canadian dollar no panacea Canada’s economic underperformance will continue as competitiveness challenges restrain exports and the slowdown in housing intensifies. We expect GDP to increase by 2.0% in 2014, before slowing to... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Too early to call the end of the housing recovery It is too early to take the weakening in activity as evidence that the housing recovery is over. The soft numbers could plausibly be the result of the temporary slowdown in job growth, the recent... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) Although durable goods orders rose by a decent 2.6% m/m in March, the details of the survey suggest that the growth rate of business investment in equipment slowed down to roughly 2.0% annualised in... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Breaking out above 200,000 The monthly gains in payroll employment may soon rise above the 200,000 that have been the norm for most of the past year. This would be partly due to some catch-up after the recent extreme winter... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar 14.) The plunge in new home sales in March raises difficult questions about the sustainability of the housing recovery. But with other parts of the economy starting to shrug off the winter malaise, we are... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Short-handed Fed sticking to the tapering plan The two-day FOMC meeting that concludes next Wednesday (30th April) is likely to be a quiet affair for two reasons: The Fed made key changes to its forward guidance at the last meeting in mid-March... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
