US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The monthly trade deficit widened to a two-year high of $47.2bn in April, from an upwardly revised $44.2bn in March. The 0.2% m/m decline in April's exports, coupled with the 1.2% m/m rise in imports... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May 14) The fall in mortgage applications for home purchase over the past week left them languishing at a six-week low. But with housing still undervalued, the economy gathering momentum and mortgage interest... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A new measure of labour availability A new measure of the availability of labour places another question mark over the Fed’s belief that there is much more slack in the labour market than the unemployment rate suggests. This supports our... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Apr. 14) CoreLogic house price data for April show that the annual pace of house price gains moderated for the second consecutive month. While the process still has some way to go, the data add to the evidence... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) They say that the third time is the charm. Let's hope so for the ISM's sake. The ISM has realised that not only did it make a crucial “software error” in its seasonal adjustments but, even once it had... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus What next for the US housing market? The US housing market will recover from its current soft patch to post strong gains in home sales and housing starts over the next couple of years. By contrast house price growth will slow, but this... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Falling long-term interest rates not just a Canadian story The recent decline in Government of Canada bond yields is consistent with market participants revising down their longer-term expectations of the future path of the overnight policy interest rate... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Falling Treasury yields a new conundrum While we don't have a singular explanation for the downward trend in Treasury yields, we are still confident that yields will eventually rebound. We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to recover to 3.0... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2014) Although Canada's slowdown in the first quarter can be partly blamed on bad weather, the underlying trends suggest that the economy lost some momentum in exports and investment. While this should turn... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Lower jobless claims highlight labour market strength The fall in weekly initial jobless claims to a seven-year low suggests payroll employment grew by around 230,000 in May. Although this may not prevent the unemployment rate from rebounding to 6.4%... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Shale will drive local housing market outperformance North Dakota owes its position as the strongest performing housing market in the US to the scale of shale oil and gas production in the State. Housing markets in a number of the other States sharing... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Higher inflation won’t prompt a shift in neutral stance We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its neutral interest rate bias in next week's policy statement. Although inflation has been firmer than the Bank had expected, due to higher energy prices and... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The modest 0.8% m/m rise in durable goods orders in April was largely due to an unexpectedly strong surge in defence orders. Indeed, excluding defence, orders actually fell by 0.8% m/m, almost exactly... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (May) The rebound in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 83.0 in May, from 81.7, is mainly a reflection of the improving labour market conditions, the upward trend in equity prices and... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Q1 14) The first quarter Case-Shiller figures provide further evidence that the slowdown in the pace of house price gains that we have been expecting is now in train. It’s not implausible that the year-on... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might QE in the euro-zone mean for bonds elsewhere? It has been suggested that one important factor keeping US Treasury yields low is the prospect of a further loosening of monetary policy by the ECB, including some form of explicit quantitative easing... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
