US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.14) Existing home sales registered their first rise in four months in April. And to the extent that a lack of stock has been holding back activity rates in recent months, the further rise in the number of... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The unexpected decline in March's retail sales volumes, combined with the mixed showing in wholesale and manufacturing sales, suggests that the economy continued to struggle at the end of the first... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Price pressures are strengthening There is now enough evidence to conclude that price pressures are strengthening. The increase in CPI inflation to 2.0% in April left it in line with the Fed’s target and core inflation rose to an... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economy to benefit from a larger wealth effect The recent upward revisions to our equity price forecasts imply that the boost to GDP growth this year from the wealth effect will be larger than we previously thought. This is one reason why, despite... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions ease further Bond yields and interest rate expectations have declined during the past few weeks. Moreover, our measure of the monetary base in advanced economies has expanded further as the Fed and BoJ have... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr 14.) The rise in the annual growth rate of our measure of the M3* money stock, to a nine month high of 5.8% in April from 5.5% in March, is consistent with the recent rebound in core CPI inflation to... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing correction only a matter of timing While the recent strength of Canada's housing market has been astounding, the regional breakdown reveals that it has begun to fray at the edges. With house prices already declining in some smaller... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economic outlook remains positive We are unconcerned by the more mixed data for April since the upward trend in sales and production is still firmly in place. More generally, the improving survey evidence points to a pick-up in... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (May) The fall in consumer confidence in May comes at the end of a week in which we also received weak retail sales and industrial production numbers. But we think that the underlying trend in economic... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) The strong rise in housing starts in April will ease fears that the recent soft patch in housing market activity will turn into an extended slowdown. 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q1 14) Last year’s rise in mortgage interest rates may have dented home sales and housing starts, but it has not dented the downward trend in the number of US households suffering mortgage payment problems... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Mar.) Manufacturing continued to recover in March from the severe winter that dampened sales volumes late last year. With sales almost fully recovered now, we expect further gains to be more modest, as... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Apr.) A widespread pick up in price pressures is now underway, which we think will result in both the CPI and PCE measures of core inflation rising above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, the fall in... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Do rising term premia pose a threat to US Treasuries? Some observers appear to be concerned that the onset of US monetary tightening will drive up long-term Treasury yields via a substantial increase in “term premia”. But a new set of unofficial data... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Apr.) Although the Teranet measure of house price inflation ticked up to 4.9% in April, from 4.6%, the earlier decline in existing home sales suggests some moderation in house price gains this year. Our... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr 14.) April’s retail sales release suggested that GDP growth in the first quarter was a bit stronger than previously thought, but that the rebound in the second quarter may turn out to be a little smaller... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
