Canada Economics Update Business confidence falls amid uncertain outlook While the Bank of Canada's summer Business Outlook Survey results point to an improvement in the fundamental drivers of economic growth, businesses seem less sure about the economic outlook. In... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Second quarter ends on a high note The data released in the last week of the second quarter added to other evidence suggesting that the economy is getting back on track after a disastrous first quarter. This provided further tentative... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Better second-quarter GDP growth unlikely to be sustained The lacklustre pace of economic growth in the spring suggests that the economy is still misfiring. As things stand now, we estimate that the economy grew by only 2.0% annualised in the second quarter... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Slowing secondary house prices indices point the way The modest rate of house price appreciation on some secondary measures stems from the fact that they exclude foreclosures and distressed sales. The Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indices, by contrast, are... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) The decline in the merchandise trade deficit in May looks encouraging, particularly since it was largely driven by a strong rebound in exports. Unfortunately, that rebound was heavily influenced by... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun. 14) The evident strength of the labour market in June is one of the key reasons why we think that the Fed will be persuaded to begin raising interest rates earlier than most expect. The unemployment rate... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun. 14) The further slight decline in mortgage interest rates in June was enough to bump up mortgage applications for remortgaging. But that was offset by a drop in mortgage applications for home purchase... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The ISM manufacturing index was broadly unchanged in June and is still consistent with annualised GDP growth rebounding to almost 3% in the second quarter. 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May 14) The monthly pace of house price gains slowed for the fourth consecutive month in May, to just 0.1% m/m. Looking ahead, loosening housing market supply conditions will keep house price inflation... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Apr.) There were both positive and negative signs in April's GDP figures, but the bottom line is that the economy is still struggling to grow in line with its potential rate, which suggests that recent... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook House price inflation will cool The rising inventory of homes for sale and the hit to housing demand from the severe winter weather are feeding through to slower house price inflation. Although home sales will now recover, a further... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fears of skilled worker shortages overdone While labour force retirements and shifting educational preferences among younger people may have contributed to a recent shortage of skilled trade workers in certain industries or regions, our... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Healthcare spending weakness spills over into Q2 Following the reported decline in first-quarter hospital revenues in the Quarterly Services Survey, we had anticipated that last week's GDP revision would show the economy contracted much more... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Small firms in the driving seat Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by another healthy 200,000 in June and that the unemployment rate fell to 6.2% from 6.3% in May. Meanwhile, the recent surge... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 Final) & Durable Goods (May) Although the bigger than expected fall in GDP in the first quarter has forced us to revise down our forecast for growth in 2014 as a whole, it doesn’t alter our view that the economy is fundamentally... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in inflation won't change interest rate outlook The recent pick-up in inflation, which mainly reflects volatility in energy and food prices, won't change the Bank of Canada's neutral view on rates. With exports and investment still underperforming... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
