Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2014) Although Canada's slowdown in the first quarter can be partly blamed on bad weather, the underlying trends suggest that the economy lost some momentum in exports and investment. While this should turn... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Lower jobless claims highlight labour market strength The fall in weekly initial jobless claims to a seven-year low suggests payroll employment grew by around 230,000 in May. Although this may not prevent the unemployment rate from rebounding to 6.4%... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Shale will drive local housing market outperformance North Dakota owes its position as the strongest performing housing market in the US to the scale of shale oil and gas production in the State. Housing markets in a number of the other States sharing... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Higher inflation won’t prompt a shift in neutral stance We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its neutral interest rate bias in next week's policy statement. Although inflation has been firmer than the Bank had expected, due to higher energy prices and... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The modest 0.8% m/m rise in durable goods orders in April was largely due to an unexpectedly strong surge in defence orders. Indeed, excluding defence, orders actually fell by 0.8% m/m, almost exactly... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (May) The rebound in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 83.0 in May, from 81.7, is mainly a reflection of the improving labour market conditions, the upward trend in equity prices and... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Q1 14) The first quarter Case-Shiller figures provide further evidence that the slowdown in the pace of house price gains that we have been expecting is now in train. It’s not implausible that the year-on... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might QE in the euro-zone mean for bonds elsewhere? It has been suggested that one important factor keeping US Treasury yields low is the prospect of a further loosening of monetary policy by the ECB, including some form of explicit quantitative easing... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy struggling to shrug off winter blues In contrast to the upbeat news coming out of the US, the more Canadian data we see on economic activity in March, the less reassured we are that the softness in the preceding three months was just a... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses testing their pricing power Our view that core inflation will increase faster than the Fed expects is based on expectations that both rent of shelter and medical inflation will continue to rise and that an acceleration in wage... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr. 14) In April, new home sales reversed most of the previous month’s decline to stand just4% below the high seen in October last year. Alongside yesterday’s modest rise inexisting home sales, the data... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The expected increase in headline inflation, to 2.0% in April from 1.5% in March, mainly reflects higher energy price inflation which should prove to be temporary. In contrast, core inflation only... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Job creation still lacking quality While the pace of Canadian job creation appears to have slowed somewhat, the corresponding deterioration in job quality is more perplexing. Lower-wage part-time employment appears to be taking the... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.14) Existing home sales registered their first rise in four months in April. And to the extent that a lack of stock has been holding back activity rates in recent months, the further rise in the number of... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The unexpected decline in March's retail sales volumes, combined with the mixed showing in wholesale and manufacturing sales, suggests that the economy continued to struggle at the end of the first... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Price pressures are strengthening There is now enough evidence to conclude that price pressures are strengthening. The increase in CPI inflation to 2.0% in April left it in line with the Fed’s target and core inflation rose to an... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
