US Economics Update Small businesses warn about price pressures Recent trends in the small business sector highlight how an easing in credit constraints is oiling the wheels of growth and that a rise in both wage and price inflation may be lurking around the... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower Canadian dollar unlikely to catapult economy The Canadian dollar's decline, which began about a year ago, has reinforced the Bank of Canada's prior view that it's long-awaited export recovery is finally set to go. Over the past year, however... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The deleveraging process is largely over The bulk of the necessary deleveraging process, especially in the private sector, appears to have been completed. This means that when the Fed starts to raise interest rates in the middle of next year... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The 25,800 rebound in employment in May wasn't quite enough to reverse fully the slightly bigger decline in the previous month and it leaves the level of employment barely higher over the past six... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The robust 217,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in May is another illustration that the economy is back on the right track after the earlier weather-related weakness. 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Slowdown in housing to hit new motor vehicle sales Our fear is that the impressive recovery in new motor vehicle sales since the recession ended, which was driven principally by a surge in light truck sales, will fade as the housing boom falters... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The Bank of Canada retained its neutral rate bias in its latest policy statement and emphasised that, although core inflation has turned out slightly firmer than expected, it is more concerned than... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) Canada's merchandise trade position unexpectedly shifted from an upwardly revised surplus in March to a small deficit in April, as the terms of trade deteriorated and energy and primary metals exports... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The monthly trade deficit widened to a two-year high of $47.2bn in April, from an upwardly revised $44.2bn in March. The 0.2% m/m decline in April's exports, coupled with the 1.2% m/m rise in imports... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May 14) The fall in mortgage applications for home purchase over the past week left them languishing at a six-week low. But with housing still undervalued, the economy gathering momentum and mortgage interest... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A new measure of labour availability A new measure of the availability of labour places another question mark over the Fed’s belief that there is much more slack in the labour market than the unemployment rate suggests. This supports our... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Apr. 14) CoreLogic house price data for April show that the annual pace of house price gains moderated for the second consecutive month. While the process still has some way to go, the data add to the evidence... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) They say that the third time is the charm. Let's hope so for the ISM's sake. The ISM has realised that not only did it make a crucial “software error” in its seasonal adjustments but, even once it had... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus What next for the US housing market? The US housing market will recover from its current soft patch to post strong gains in home sales and housing starts over the next couple of years. By contrast house price growth will slow, but this... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Falling long-term interest rates not just a Canadian story The recent decline in Government of Canada bond yields is consistent with market participants revising down their longer-term expectations of the future path of the overnight policy interest rate... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Falling Treasury yields a new conundrum While we don't have a singular explanation for the downward trend in Treasury yields, we are still confident that yields will eventually rebound. We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to recover to 3.0... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
