US Economics Update Fed sticks to the QE tapering plan Despite the contraction in first-quarter GDP, the falling unemployment rate and signs of a pick-up in inflation persuaded the Fed to stick to its existing plan and taper its asset purchases by a... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The annual growth rate of our measure of M3*, which replicates the series discontinued by the Fed, accelerated to an 11-month high of 6.1% in May. This is entirely consistent with the recent rise in... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Labour market slack will keep inflation low Although inflation has been on the rise, the broader evidence suggests that this pick-up should prove temporary. Economic growth since the start of the year has been disappointing and labour market... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) The fall in housing starts in May is not a surprise given the size of the gain the month before, although the size of the decline was bigger than we or the consensus expected. Looking ahead, there are... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) With core CPI inflation rising to 2.0% in May, from 1.8% in April, the Fed will have to acknowledge in tomorrow’s policy statement that price pressures are building. The chances that it will hike... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) May’s industrial production data are a timely reminder ahead of this week’s Fed policy meeting that activity is bouncing back after the disappointment of the first quarter. What’s more, the latest... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing affordability a major problem While the Canadian government has been tightening its macro-prudential housing rules over the past five years, housing valuations have continued to inflate and household financial leverage has climbed... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed will focus on improving labour market GDP growth over the first half of this year could average less than 1% annualised. At the same time, however, labour market conditions have strengthened and price inflation appears to be picking up... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Apr. 14) The disappointing decline in manufacturing sales in April was entirely due to lower prices, whereas sales volumes continued to recover from the weather-related drop late last year. With sales now... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The trivial decline in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to 81.2 in June, from 81.9, was mainly driven by steadily rising gasoline prices. Since most of the other key... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is mortgage lending at a turning point? Tentative signs that rising house prices are increasing the ability of many households to meet minimum deposit criteria increase the chances that the most recent jump in mortgage applications might... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (May) The latest Teranet house price data provide some early evidence that the slowdown in house price inflation continued in May. The past decline in existing home sales and the steady rise in the number... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) Since the weak increase in retail sales in May is at odds with rising employment, easier access to credit and increasing household wealth, it probably won’t be long before sales start to rise more... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch New projections may signal chance of earlier rate hike While the Fed is unlikely to alter its tapering plans or the main message of its forward guidance at the FOMC meeting due to conclude on Wednesday 18th June, its new economic projections may prompt... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales and starts show fresh signs of life The most recent data have provided support for our view that the sharp drop in sales and starts seen over the past few months would prove temporary. New and existing home sales, as well as housing... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fading headwinds point to stronger GDP growth With credit more freely available and the fiscal drag fading, we anticipate that the economic recovery is finally about to shift into a higher gear. As the weather-related distortion in the first... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
