US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jun.) June’s new home sales data point to a market that is struggling to capitalise on the recovery that is underway in the rest of the US economy. Yet there are good reasons to expect new home sales to... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Surge in part-time employment is not a big concern Our econometric model suggests that non-farmpayroll employment increased by around 225,000in July. That would be smaller than June’s increaseof 288,000, but it would still be consistent withjob growth... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Drifting towards a change in view on slack With no new economic projections due and nopress conference scheduled, the FOMC policymeeting that ends on Wednesday 30th should be aquiet affair with the only major development beinga further... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) May's respectable increase in retail sales volumes combined with the stronger gains in wholesale and manufacturing sales reported last week indicate that the economy regained some lost momentum in... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Labour market conditions worsening The fact that Canada's unemployment rate has only nudged higher in the past few months is astonishing, given the recent weakness in net employment gains. The only reason why the unemployment rate hasn... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) The rise in existing home sales reflects the recent decline in mortgage interest rates,stronger job growth and the continued unwinding of the weather effect from earlier inthe year. While the legacy... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The softer tone of June’s consumer price figures does little to change our view that core inflation will rise faster than the Fed expects. There is still plenty of evidence that the decline in spare... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment rebounds The weakness of business investment over the past couple of years has been disconcerting, but arange of indicators point to a much stronger showing in the second quarter while, more generally, rising... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus A cyclical rise in wage growth is underway A cyclical rise in wage growth appears to be underway in some sectors of the economy and in some US States. This suggests it is only a matter of time before the decline in the national unemployment... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The acceleration in the growth rates of both bank loans and our measure of M3 inthe first half of the year suggest that the economic recovery has continued tostrengthen. 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slack in labour market has increased Canadian labour market conditions appear to have deteriorated over the past year and a half, even though the unemployment rate has been unchanged. While net employment gains have been unusually weak... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in headline inflation in June, which is largely due to higher food prices, is unlikely to worry the Bank of Canada. Although most measures of underlying inflation also nudged higher... 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The rise in gasoline prices was behind the dip in consumer confidence in July. But rising equity prices and the improving labour market should help consumer confidence to increase before too long. 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment rebounds The weakness of business investment over the past couple of years has been disconcerting, but a range of indicators point to a much stronger showing in the second quarter while, more generally, rising... 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is China behind the decline in US Treasury yields? The rally in the US government bond market this year has coincided with a pick-up in China’s netpurchases of long-term Treasury securities, which some have attributed to intervention to weaken... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) The sharp drop in housing starts in June suggests that the shortage of labour and lots is weighing on construction volumes. But the excess of household formation over homebuilding suggests that the... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
