US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May 14) The monthly pace of house price gains slowed for the fourth consecutive month in May, to just 0.1% m/m. Looking ahead, loosening housing market supply conditions will keep house price inflation... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Apr.) There were both positive and negative signs in April's GDP figures, but the bottom line is that the economy is still struggling to grow in line with its potential rate, which suggests that recent... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook House price inflation will cool The rising inventory of homes for sale and the hit to housing demand from the severe winter weather are feeding through to slower house price inflation. Although home sales will now recover, a further... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fears of skilled worker shortages overdone While labour force retirements and shifting educational preferences among younger people may have contributed to a recent shortage of skilled trade workers in certain industries or regions, our... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Healthcare spending weakness spills over into Q2 Following the reported decline in first-quarter hospital revenues in the Quarterly Services Survey, we had anticipated that last week's GDP revision would show the economy contracted much more... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Small firms in the driving seat Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by another healthy 200,000 in June and that the unemployment rate fell to 6.2% from 6.3% in May. Meanwhile, the recent surge... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 Final) & Durable Goods (May) Although the bigger than expected fall in GDP in the first quarter has forced us to revise down our forecast for growth in 2014 as a whole, it doesn’t alter our view that the economy is fundamentally... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in inflation won't change interest rate outlook The recent pick-up in inflation, which mainly reflects volatility in energy and food prices, won't change the Bank of Canada's neutral view on rates. With exports and investment still underperforming... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence rose to a six-year high of 85.2 in June, from 82.2, as the positive effects from an improving labour market and record high equity prices trumped... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales (Apr/May) The sharp slowdown in house price inflation in April is unlikely to be a one-off. House price gains will slow further now that housing supply conditions are loosening. 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Industrial recovery gathering momentum The weather-related slump in activity in the first quarter persuaded many that the US economic recovery would remain lacklustre. The fundamentals look a lot better now, however, with credit... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) The strong rise in existing home sales in May probably reflects the milder weather and the 35 basis point decline in 30-year mortgage interest rates so far in 2014. We expect the improvement in home... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's equity market rally likely to simmer down The recent rally in Canada's benchmark stock market index, which has risen by 24% over the past 12 months, took it to a new record high last week. What's more impressive from our vantage point is the... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed too complacent on inflation We don’t agree with Janet Yellen’s view that the recent rise in inflation is just noise. Instead, it is clear to us that a widespread strengthening in price pressures in areas as diverse as rents... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) The stronger than expected pick-up in both headline and core inflation indicates that inflation will overshot the Bank of Canada's previous forecast assumptions. Since a large part of this is due to... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Household financial leverage still dangerously high While Canadian policymakers will be somewhat relieved to learn that household financial leverage hasn't risen any higher this year, it hasn't fallen either, meaning that heavily indebted households... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
