US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) The downward trend in mortgage rates seen over the first half of the year has ended, with rates unchanged in July. That helps explain why mortgage applications for refinancing fell during the month. A... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) According to CoreLogic, house prices only managed to hold their ground in June, and have not seen a month-on-month rise since March. A loosening in supply conditions has helped to rein in house price... 5th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Widespread strengthening in demand for loans The strengthening in mortgage demand evident in the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggeststhat the housing recovery is back on track after having stalled in the first half of the year... 5th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales and starts still soft The housing market has yet to shake off the weakness seen in the early stages of the year. Despite increasingly solid economic data and a drop in mortgage interest rates, mortgage applications and new... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-year high in July suggests that the third quarter began on a high note. The index is consistent with the 4.0% annualised gain in GDP in the second... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumption growth set to accelerate Consumption growth has been remarkably stable at around 2% since the recovery began in mid-2009. Nevertheless, we anticipate that the pick-up in income growth and past gains in householdwealth will... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) It is a sign of how far the US economy has come in recent months that the 209,000increase in non-farm payroll employment in July will probably be viewed as adisappointment in the markets. The... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (May) May's consensus-matching 0.4% m/m increase in GDP suggests that second-quarter GDP growth will turn out to be close to 2.5% annualised, following the weather-related slowdown to 1.2% in the first... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What is happening to mortgage lending? The value of banks’ outstanding residential mortgage lending is rising but the number of new loans remains static. This divergence is explained by a sharp rise in the value of the typical mortgage... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed continues with gradual QE tapering The Fed's policy announcement was largely as expected, with the monthly asset purchases reduced by an additional $10bn, to $25bn per month. But subtle changes to the statement and Philadelphia Fed... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) Not only did second-quarter GDP rebound by 4.0% annualised, but the decline in thefirst quarter was trimmed to 2.1%, from 2.9%, and other revisions show the economygrowing at an even faster pace than... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Surge in confidence to near 7-year high hard to justify The surge in the Conference Board's consumer confidence measure to a six-and-a-half year high of 90.4 in July, from 86.4 in June, looks a bit suspicious, even if we allow for the recent drop back in... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Widening trade deficit due to strong domestic demand Although the trade deficit has widened in recent months, the increase is largely due to the strength of imports rather than the weakness of exports. Our calculations suggest that exports increased at... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation likely to peak before end of this year The recent pick-up in inflation has led some people to question the Bank of Canada's neutral stance on interest rates, but we think these concerns are misplaced. The recent increase in headline... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Risks surrounding Q2 GDP larger than normal We expect this week’s release of the preliminary estimate of GDP in the second quarter to reveal thatgrowth rebounded at an annualised rate of 3.2% after the 2.9% contraction in the first quarter... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) June’s durable goods orders data suggest that the rebound in business investment inthe second quarter was a bit smaller than we had been expecting. Nonetheless,annualised GDP growth in the second... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
