US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The recent slowdown in the pace at which core consumer prices are rising eases some of the pressure on the Fed to start considering rate hikes, although only temporarily. 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Plenty to talk about at Jackson Hole Federal Reserve officials will be heading to their annual policy get together at Jackson Hole later this week. We expect little in the way of direct insights into the monetary policy outlook... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The decline in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index to an eight-month low of 79.2 in August, from 81.8, principally reflects the drop back in stock markets over the past few weeks... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jul.) The surge in industrial production in July offsets the weaker news on retail salesreleased earlier this week, suggesting that the recovery remains intact. 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rise in auto loans not another bubble The NY Fed's latest data on household debt help to alleviate concerns that a bubble in sub-prime auto loans is forming. Relative to households incomes, auto loan debt is still at comparatively low... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Prime mortgage credit loosening despite new lending rules Mortgage credit conditions are loosening once again and the demand for mortgages is strengthening. Moreover, this is despite the introduction of the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau’s ability-to... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update ISM indices in rate-hiking territory The ISM activity indices have risen to levels that previously prompted the Fed to raise interest ratesand the yield curve to steepen. This is unlikely to force the Fed into action immediately – in... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.) The Teranet-National Bank national composite house price index showed that house price inflation accelerated somewhat to 4.9% in July, from 4.4% in June. The sales-to-listings ratio suggests that... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The weakness of retail sales in July is at odds with the recent acceleration in income growth, rises in household wealth and greater availability of credit, which all suggest that the outlook for... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Dwindling slack will soon lead to surge in wage growth We believe that the slack in the labour market is dwindling and we expect a resulting accelerationin wage growth to be one of the big stories over the next 12 months. Unless productivity growth breaks... 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Credit flowing more freely to small businesses Recent trends in the small business sector suggest that the labour market has continued to strengthenand that the loosening in credit conditions will allow businesses to boost investment. 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outlook brightening The recent fall in equity prices and stagnation in house prices has not taken much of the gloss off the strengthening in the other economic news. As such, the economic outlook is even brighter now... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A new policy rule for the post-crisis era Most monetary policy rules, many of which suggest that interest rates should already have risen, arelargely useless in the post-crisis world. If we make adjustments to allow for a lower neutral rate... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) Canada's labour market continued to misfire in July. We can't help thinking that if the Bank of Canada had a dual inflation/employment mandate like the Fed, then it would now be seriously considering... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) The monthly external trade balance unexpectedly improved to a surplus of $1.9bn in June, which is the best showing in more than two years. To the extent that the improvement reflects stronger growth... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The decline in the monthly trade deficit to a five-month low of $41.5bn in June, from$44.7bn, means that second-quarter GDP growth will be revised even higher from theinitial estimate of 4.0%... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
