Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada unlikely to take aim at rising currency While the Bank of Canada's hopes for an export revival could be thwarted by the recent resurgence in the Canadian dollar, it has few options other than cutting interest rates to try and turn things... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Quality of jobs being created is above average Canada's economy will struggle over the next two years due to a housing-induced slowdown that potentially could push the economy close to stagnation before the end of 2016. While export and investment... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) Canada's shocking 9,400 decline in employment, following almost no gains over the previous six months, suggests that the economy is really struggling. Clearly, the economy just isn't benefitting from... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Treasuries vulnerable to a recalibration of rate expectations Ignoring term premiums, the yield of a “risk-free” government bond is a reflection of the short-term rates that are expected until it matures. So if the Fed raises the federal funds rate, there ought... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Core inflation will continue to rise The recent rise in core inflation is not just “noise” as Janet Yellen suggested and instead a large partof it is linked to a decline in the amount of spare capacity in a number of different sectors... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to be panicked by higher inflation readings We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its neutral interest rate bias in next week's policy statement. Although inflation has been firmer than the Bank had originally expected, this is partly because... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House price slowdown gathering steam The pick-up in job creation, the return of more clement weather and the decline in mortgage interest rates helped home sales rise by a strong 6.1% m/m in May. However, house prices are still... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will the US stock market handle Fed tightening? The US stock market has tended to fare quite well during previous Fed tightening cycles. Although we think its performance in the next cycle will be below average, we still expect it to creep higher. 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence falls amid uncertain outlook While the Bank of Canada's summer Business Outlook Survey results point to an improvement in the fundamental drivers of economic growth, businesses seem less sure about the economic outlook. In... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Second quarter ends on a high note The data released in the last week of the second quarter added to other evidence suggesting that the economy is getting back on track after a disastrous first quarter. This provided further tentative... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Better second-quarter GDP growth unlikely to be sustained The lacklustre pace of economic growth in the spring suggests that the economy is still misfiring. As things stand now, we estimate that the economy grew by only 2.0% annualised in the second quarter... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Slowing secondary house prices indices point the way The modest rate of house price appreciation on some secondary measures stems from the fact that they exclude foreclosures and distressed sales. The Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indices, by contrast, are... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) The decline in the merchandise trade deficit in May looks encouraging, particularly since it was largely driven by a strong rebound in exports. Unfortunately, that rebound was heavily influenced by... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun. 14) The evident strength of the labour market in June is one of the key reasons why we think that the Fed will be persuaded to begin raising interest rates earlier than most expect. The unemployment rate... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun. 14) The further slight decline in mortgage interest rates in June was enough to bump up mortgage applications for remortgaging. But that was offset by a drop in mortgage applications for home purchase... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The ISM manufacturing index was broadly unchanged in June and is still consistent with annualised GDP growth rebounding to almost 3% in the second quarter. 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
