US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The rise in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in August to itshighest level since before the recession looks a bit odd when other measures ofconfidence have weakened. Nonetheless... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jun.) The monthly Case-Shiller 20-City measure of house prices posted its second consecutive fall in June. Year-on-year house price inflation has slowed considerably this year, in line with our long... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) July’s spectacular durable goods orders provide a misleadingly strong signal on thestrength of the economy, although the outlook for business investment is improving. 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) The decline in new home sales in July, albeit from an upwardly revised level in June, is further evidence that the new homes sector is failing to share in the wider economic recovery. Nevertheless... 25th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second-quarter economic rebound won't be sustained Canada's economic rebound in the second quarter mainly reflects a bounce-back after bad winter weather dampened economic activity in the first quarter of this year and certain one-off factors that... 25th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response CPI (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.) The unexpected decline in core inflation in July, to 1.7% from 1.8% in June, probably marks a turning point for the second half of this year. With labour market conditions likely to become even more... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen stands her ground on slack If the release of the minutes of July’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday suggested that the Fed had takentwo steps closer to raising interest rates, then today’s speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen at Jackson... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recovery in small business lending to gather pace The main reason why the stock of loans to small businesses has yet to surpass its previous peak is because weak sales have restrained the demand for new borrowing. The recent rise in the NFIB small... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global economy too reliant on the US Preliminary business surveys for August, which were published by Markit today, suggest that growthcontinues to be sluggish in Japan and the euro-zone and that China’s economy is slowing. In contrast... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) The unexpected gain in existing home sales in July extends the run of rising sales to four months. Recent falls in mortgage interest rates and the steadily improving labour market mean that the... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed moving closer to rate hike The minutes of the FOMC meeting that took place at the end of July suggest that the Fed has takenanother step closer towards raising interest rates. This is consistent with our view that “lift-off”... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The recent rapid rise in bank loans, which is partly being driven by auto loans, is not a cause for concern and instead is a sign that the economy is becoming stronger. 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still loose Global monetary conditions have remained highly accommodative even though theUS Fed is now just a couple of months away from completing QE3. The latest senior loan officer surveys show that the demand... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Employment data indicate slow growth economy Even after the upward revisions to July's data, the weak trend in employment suggests that some caution should be taken when making any bold inferences about the state of the economy, particularly... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US shale boom to continue to lift oil production Improvements in drilling technology and processes have continued to boost US shale oil output, evenwhen the number of rigs actually drilling has remained flat. These improvements should reduce... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) The sharp rise in housing starts in July is an encouraging sign that the recovery in construction activity is getting back on track. Booming homebuilder confidence points to further gains to come. 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
