US Housing Market Update What is happening to mortgage lending? The value of banks’ outstanding residential mortgage lending is rising but the number of new loans remains static. This divergence is explained by a sharp rise in the value of the typical mortgage... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed continues with gradual QE tapering The Fed's policy announcement was largely as expected, with the monthly asset purchases reduced by an additional $10bn, to $25bn per month. But subtle changes to the statement and Philadelphia Fed... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) Not only did second-quarter GDP rebound by 4.0% annualised, but the decline in thefirst quarter was trimmed to 2.1%, from 2.9%, and other revisions show the economygrowing at an even faster pace than... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Surge in confidence to near 7-year high hard to justify The surge in the Conference Board's consumer confidence measure to a six-and-a-half year high of 90.4 in July, from 86.4 in June, looks a bit suspicious, even if we allow for the recent drop back in... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Widening trade deficit due to strong domestic demand Although the trade deficit has widened in recent months, the increase is largely due to the strength of imports rather than the weakness of exports. Our calculations suggest that exports increased at... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation likely to peak before end of this year The recent pick-up in inflation has led some people to question the Bank of Canada's neutral stance on interest rates, but we think these concerns are misplaced. The recent increase in headline... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Risks surrounding Q2 GDP larger than normal We expect this week’s release of the preliminary estimate of GDP in the second quarter to reveal thatgrowth rebounded at an annualised rate of 3.2% after the 2.9% contraction in the first quarter... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) June’s durable goods orders data suggest that the rebound in business investment inthe second quarter was a bit smaller than we had been expecting. Nonetheless,annualised GDP growth in the second... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jun.) June’s new home sales data point to a market that is struggling to capitalise on the recovery that is underway in the rest of the US economy. Yet there are good reasons to expect new home sales to... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Surge in part-time employment is not a big concern Our econometric model suggests that non-farmpayroll employment increased by around 225,000in July. That would be smaller than June’s increaseof 288,000, but it would still be consistent withjob growth... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Drifting towards a change in view on slack With no new economic projections due and nopress conference scheduled, the FOMC policymeeting that ends on Wednesday 30th should be aquiet affair with the only major development beinga further... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) May's respectable increase in retail sales volumes combined with the stronger gains in wholesale and manufacturing sales reported last week indicate that the economy regained some lost momentum in... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Labour market conditions worsening The fact that Canada's unemployment rate has only nudged higher in the past few months is astonishing, given the recent weakness in net employment gains. The only reason why the unemployment rate hasn... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) The rise in existing home sales reflects the recent decline in mortgage interest rates,stronger job growth and the continued unwinding of the weather effect from earlier inthe year. While the legacy... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The softer tone of June’s consumer price figures does little to change our view that core inflation will rise faster than the Fed expects. There is still plenty of evidence that the decline in spare... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment rebounds The weakness of business investment over the past couple of years has been disconcerting, but arange of indicators point to a much stronger showing in the second quarter while, more generally, rising... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
