Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) The further growth in export volumes in July is encouraging, but we're still not convinced this strength will be sustained. Nevertheless, with imports increasing at a more moderate pace, the... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) & ADP (Aug.) The further decline in the trade deficit to a six-month low of $40.5bn in July, from $40.8bn the month before, suggests that net external trade will make a larger positive contribution to third... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada rightly remains neutral on rates The Bank of Canada's neutral policy statement on the rate outlook showed that it isn't concerned about the recent uptick in inflation, since this is due to temporary factors rather than any... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) Mortgage applications for home purchase fell to their lowest level since 1995 in August. Yet other measures of mortgage market activity, such as the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey, suggest that... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Gulf between US and euro-zone widens further The global manufacturing PMI, published by Markit today, suggests that world GDP growth may pickup a bit further in the third quarter after rebounding in the second. But the imbalance between thefast... 2nd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Having all-but stalled during the previous three months, the CoreLogic measure of house prices posted a decent gain in July. But this is probably no more than a temporary reprieve, and we expect house... 2nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage cost inflation likely fell to record low Although some evidence suggests that hourly wages may have risen more quickly recently, labour productivity has also risen as well, resulting in smaller increases in unit labour costs, or slower wage... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2014) After slowing more than previously thought in Q1, Canada's economy rebounded more strongly than expected in Q2, posting annualised GDP growth of 3.1%. The 17.8% rebound in exports mainly reflects the... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is Yellen’s new labour index any good? The labour market conditions index referred to by Fed Chair Janet Yellen in her speech at Jackson Hole doesn’t tell us anything that we don’t already know. Moreover, it may not be very useful in the... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What next for house prices? The house price slowdown that we have long-expected picked up a gear in recent months, suggesting that our forecast for house price inflation to slow to 4% next year is on track . 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Improving trend reasserts itself Our econometric model implies that the easing injob growth and the rise in the unemployment ratein July were just blips in otherwise improvingtrends. We estimate that payroll employment roseby around... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Export rebound won't prompt a shift in neutral stance We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its neutral interest rate bias in next week's policy statement. Although exports have rebounded surprisingly well, the Bank's Governor doesn't seem convinced... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Major fiscal improvement has already occurred The CBO’s latest budget projections highlight the extent of the improvement in America’s fiscalposition in recent years. At the same time, the CBO appears to agree with the Fed’s assessment thatthere... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack A stronger and more widespread recovery Both businesses and households have started to enjoy the fruits of an economicrecovery that appears to be becoming stronger and more widespread. A weightedaverage of the two ISM business activity... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Moderate business profits point to slower GDP growth The slowdown in the growth of business profits in the second quarter runs counter to the consensus view that stronger overall economic growth lies just around the corner. This supports our view that... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the S&P 500? Although the S&P 500 has broken above 2,000 this week for the first time, we doubt that the stock market will go from strength to strength. For now, we are sticking with our forecast that the index... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
