US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The weakness of retail sales in July is at odds with the recent acceleration in income growth, rises in household wealth and greater availability of credit, which all suggest that the outlook for... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Dwindling slack will soon lead to surge in wage growth We believe that the slack in the labour market is dwindling and we expect a resulting accelerationin wage growth to be one of the big stories over the next 12 months. Unless productivity growth breaks... 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Credit flowing more freely to small businesses Recent trends in the small business sector suggest that the labour market has continued to strengthenand that the loosening in credit conditions will allow businesses to boost investment. 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outlook brightening The recent fall in equity prices and stagnation in house prices has not taken much of the gloss off the strengthening in the other economic news. As such, the economic outlook is even brighter now... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A new policy rule for the post-crisis era Most monetary policy rules, many of which suggest that interest rates should already have risen, arelargely useless in the post-crisis world. If we make adjustments to allow for a lower neutral rate... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) Canada's labour market continued to misfire in July. We can't help thinking that if the Bank of Canada had a dual inflation/employment mandate like the Fed, then it would now be seriously considering... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) The monthly external trade balance unexpectedly improved to a surplus of $1.9bn in June, which is the best showing in more than two years. To the extent that the improvement reflects stronger growth... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The decline in the monthly trade deficit to a five-month low of $41.5bn in June, from$44.7bn, means that second-quarter GDP growth will be revised even higher from theinitial estimate of 4.0%... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) The downward trend in mortgage rates seen over the first half of the year has ended, with rates unchanged in July. That helps explain why mortgage applications for refinancing fell during the month. A... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) According to CoreLogic, house prices only managed to hold their ground in June, and have not seen a month-on-month rise since March. A loosening in supply conditions has helped to rein in house price... 5th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Widespread strengthening in demand for loans The strengthening in mortgage demand evident in the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggeststhat the housing recovery is back on track after having stalled in the first half of the year... 5th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales and starts still soft The housing market has yet to shake off the weakness seen in the early stages of the year. Despite increasingly solid economic data and a drop in mortgage interest rates, mortgage applications and new... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-year high in July suggests that the third quarter began on a high note. The index is consistent with the 4.0% annualised gain in GDP in the second... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumption growth set to accelerate Consumption growth has been remarkably stable at around 2% since the recovery began in mid-2009. Nevertheless, we anticipate that the pick-up in income growth and past gains in householdwealth will... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) It is a sign of how far the US economy has come in recent months that the 209,000increase in non-farm payroll employment in July will probably be viewed as adisappointment in the markets. The... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (May) May's consensus-matching 0.4% m/m increase in GDP suggests that second-quarter GDP growth will turn out to be close to 2.5% annualised, following the weather-related slowdown to 1.2% in the first... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
