Canada Economics Weekly Higher capacity utilisation rate overstates economic conditions In his first 100 days in office, Egypt’s President al- Sisi has made more progress in tackling the country’s economic problems than many, including ourselves, had expected. In particular, his... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug.) The Teranet-National Bank national composite house price index showed that house price inflation rose to 5.0% in August, up slightly from 4.9% in July. Nevertheless, the sales-to-listings ratio... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising dollar reflects economic strength Even a further rise in the dollar above its current four-year high won’t prevent a period of higher inflation and stronger GDP growth. It would be odd to conclude that the dollar will significantly... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The solid rise in retail sales in August, together with the upward revision in July, suggests that annualised real consumption growth in the third quarter as a whole will come in between 1.5% and 2.0%... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How significant is the new Case-Shiller house price index? The new Case-Shiller house price index improves on its predecessors by giving a monthly read on nationa l house prices. The historical revisions suggest that the housing bust was not as deep as... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sharp slowdown in house price inflation The new Case-Shiller national house price index, now released on a monthly basis, shows seasonally-adjusted prices falling in each of April, May and June. This is a dramatic reversal from the average... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed's forward guidance could change again The Fed will continue to trim its asset purchases at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes on the 17 th September. There is the possibility that it could also tweak its forward guidance and/or... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing imbalances point to a slowdown ahead Housing starts have been running at close to 190,000 units over the past year, well above demographic demand, which we estimate is somewhere in the range of 175,000 to 185,000 units. Meanwhile, newly... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions still strong The latest NFIB small business and JOLTS surveys indicate that the disappointing gain in payroll employment in August was just a blip rather than the start of a major slowdown. What’s more, the... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian auto sector an unlikely growth source While the recent surge in new motor vehicle sales is an encouraging sign of household confidence perhaps, we think it is more likely a weather-related bounce back from the slowdown earlier this year... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Confidence to continue climbing We’re not convinced that equity prices will continue to boost consumer confidence, but an acceleration in wage growth should allow confidence to rise further above its long run average. 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) Canada's discouraging employment performance over the past six months is further evidence that the economy is struggling and that the Bank of Canada's needs to keep interest rates low to have any hope... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Spring of hope or winter of despair? Last week was the best of times and the worst of times. Just as it looked as though the US recoverywas finally moving into a higher gear, as credit conditions eased and the fiscal drag faded, the142... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The modest 142,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August, which was well belowthe consensus forecast at 230,000 and the smallest gain this year, will inevitably sparkspeculation that the US recovery... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is there a bubble in US “high”-yield corporate bonds? Despite edging up a little over the summer, the yield of US 7-10 year B-rated corporate bonds remains close to its lowest level in at least a quarter of a century. We think that this is a bubble and... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Gulf between US and euro-zone widens The US and euro-zone economies have diverged further in the past few months, as growth in the single currency area has stalled but the US recovery has stepped up a gear. Moreover, the gap between the... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
