Global Economics Update Global economy too reliant on the US Preliminary business surveys for August, which were published by Markit today, suggest that growthcontinues to be sluggish in Japan and the euro-zone and that China’s economy is slowing. In contrast... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) The unexpected gain in existing home sales in July extends the run of rising sales to four months. Recent falls in mortgage interest rates and the steadily improving labour market mean that the... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed moving closer to rate hike The minutes of the FOMC meeting that took place at the end of July suggest that the Fed has takenanother step closer towards raising interest rates. This is consistent with our view that “lift-off”... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The recent rapid rise in bank loans, which is partly being driven by auto loans, is not a cause for concern and instead is a sign that the economy is becoming stronger. 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still loose Global monetary conditions have remained highly accommodative even though theUS Fed is now just a couple of months away from completing QE3. The latest senior loan officer surveys show that the demand... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Employment data indicate slow growth economy Even after the upward revisions to July's data, the weak trend in employment suggests that some caution should be taken when making any bold inferences about the state of the economy, particularly... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US shale boom to continue to lift oil production Improvements in drilling technology and processes have continued to boost US shale oil output, evenwhen the number of rigs actually drilling has remained flat. These improvements should reduce... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) The sharp rise in housing starts in July is an encouraging sign that the recovery in construction activity is getting back on track. Booming homebuilder confidence points to further gains to come. 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The recent slowdown in the pace at which core consumer prices are rising eases some of the pressure on the Fed to start considering rate hikes, although only temporarily. 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Plenty to talk about at Jackson Hole Federal Reserve officials will be heading to their annual policy get together at Jackson Hole later this week. We expect little in the way of direct insights into the monetary policy outlook... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The decline in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index to an eight-month low of 79.2 in August, from 81.8, principally reflects the drop back in stock markets over the past few weeks... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jul.) The surge in industrial production in July offsets the weaker news on retail salesreleased earlier this week, suggesting that the recovery remains intact. 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rise in auto loans not another bubble The NY Fed's latest data on household debt help to alleviate concerns that a bubble in sub-prime auto loans is forming. Relative to households incomes, auto loan debt is still at comparatively low... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Prime mortgage credit loosening despite new lending rules Mortgage credit conditions are loosening once again and the demand for mortgages is strengthening. Moreover, this is despite the introduction of the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau’s ability-to... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update ISM indices in rate-hiking territory The ISM activity indices have risen to levels that previously prompted the Fed to raise interest ratesand the yield curve to steepen. This is unlikely to force the Fed into action immediately – in... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.) The Teranet-National Bank national composite house price index showed that house price inflation accelerated somewhat to 4.9% in July, from 4.4% in June. The sales-to-listings ratio suggests that... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
