US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Even as the Fed has reduced the pace of its monthly asset purchases, the annual rate of broad money growth has remained largely stable at close to 6%. 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) The decline in existing home sales in August hints at a vulnerability in the recovery in sales activity – it’s built on higher than normal levels of cash buyers and investors. These groups took a step... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Durability of economic recovery still in doubt After a slow start to the year, partly due to bad weather, the recent run of good data since then indicate that the economy continued to grow well above its potential annualised growth rate of 2.0% in... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) The unexpected rise in the official core inflation rate, mainly due to recent price hikes in household communications, doesn't appear to reflect any tightening in domestic economic conditions and... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Private sector debt growth accelerates Private sector debt growth accelerated in the second quarter, as both household and business borrowing increased at a healthy pace. Nevertheless, debt growth is still running at a slower pace than... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Return to normalcy? The recent strength evident in much of the incoming survey and activity data suggeststhat we were right to believe GDP growth would accelerate once credit conditions eased and thefiscal drag faded. We... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Other developments offset stronger dollar Even though the dollar has recently risen to a four-year high, other developments mean that overall financial conditions are supporting the economy by more than they were earlier in the year. As such... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) The decline in housing starts in August was worse than we or the consensus had anticipated and stands in stark contrast to surging homebuilder confidence. This weakness should prove temporary, however... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising US Treasury yields would not slow EM growth Concerns that the policy tightening implied by the latest Fed forecasts would eventually lead to higher US Treasury yields and hinder EM growth are probably misplaced. A handful of EMs arevulnerable... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed pushes up rate projections Although the Fed opted to keep the language in the FOMC statement that there will be a "considerable time" between the end of the asset purchases in October and the first rate hike, we suspect that... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further softening in core price pressures in August eases the pressure on the Fedto weaken its “considerable time” rate pledge at today’s policy meeting. 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada isn't targeting lower dollar Governor Stephen Poloz's reminder today that the Bank of Canada has no desire to use monetary policy to target a weaker currency doesn't mean that the Canadian dollar won't continue to depreciate over... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jul.) The continued strength in manufacturing sales in July, combined with some upward revisions to the gains in the months before, suggests that the economy began the third quarter on a stronger footing... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will UK Gilts continue to outperform US Treasuries? The yield of 10-year Gilts has fallen clearly below that of 10-year Treasuries for the first time since the spring. Whilst it would be premature to talk of a significant decoupling, we suspect that UK... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Yet another distortion in US stock market valuation This Thursday, the Federal Reserve will publish its latest Financial Accounts of the United States for Q2. These are likely to show that the market value of equities issued by US non-financial... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The fall in industrial production in August was just due to problems seasonally adjusting autos production and is therefore not a sign that the recovery is running out of steam. The more upbeat survey... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
