Global Markets Update A stronger economy could be a mixed blessing for US equities A stronger economy would clearly be better news for the US stock market than another recession. But it might not provide much of a boost to share prices if the labour market becomes too tight. If... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Signs of weaker global manufacturing in September Business surveys published today underline that growth in the euro-zone is slowing whereas the US economy remains strong. They also confirm that there has been a sharp slowdown in the UK’s... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index in September won’t cause any sleepless nights at the Fed when the index has fallen from a high level and when it is still consistent with GDP growing at an... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update iPhone 6 release won’t be a plus for the economy While the new iPhone release may have some effect on forthcoming consumption and import data, it won’t have any notable effect on GDP. Nonetheless, the outlook for consumption remains positive. 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) The decline in mortgage interest rates to a 15-month low is doing little to revive mortgage applications. But this measure of mortgage market activity does not sit comfortably with some others, which... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Data Response - GDP (Jul.) Canada's weaker than expected GDP data for July suggest that third-quarter GDP growth might turn out to be slightly weaker than our below-consensus forecast of 2.4% annualised, following the weather... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in September doesn’t change the bigger picture that households’ financial positions are stronger now than they have been for most of... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul.) The marginal rise in house prices in July, which did no more than reverse the previous month’s decline, supports our view that house price inflation will slow to 4% y/y by the end of this year. 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook House price inflation will slow further Loosening mortgage credit conditions, decent jobs gains and accelerating wage growth will help home sales rise over the next 12 months. But the improvement in selling conditions is also tempting... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The dollar is likely to rise even further Rather than being a sign that global growth is faltering, the recent decline in international oil prices mainly reflects improving supply conditions. As such, it should provide a modest boost to... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflation outlook has not changed While the recent softening in price pressures suggests that core inflation won’t hit the Fed’s 2% target until a bit later than we previously thought, we still think it will get there by mid-2015... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) Stripping out the aircraft-related volatility, the underlying strength in capital goods orders and shipments in August indicates that business investment in equipment continues to expand at a healthy... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Slowdown in job growth at odds with other evidence Our econometric model suggests that the recent slowdown in payroll employment growth is at odds with the strengthening in other measures of labour market conditions. As such, we expect that August’s... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation will bounce back Despite the weaker core inflation readings over the past couple of months, we still expect core inflation to climb gradually, rising above the Fed's 2% target in the first half of next year... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) The increase in new home sales to a six-year high in August suggests that looser credit conditions and strengthening economic activity are finally giving households the confidence to purchase a new... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July's flat retail sales volumes combined with the decline in wholesale sales reported last week indicate that the economic recovery lost some momentum at the start of the third quarter. This is... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
