US Economics Weekly Is Yellen’s new labour index any good? The labour market conditions index referred to by Fed Chair Janet Yellen in her speech at Jackson Hole doesn’t tell us anything that we don’t already know. Moreover, it may not be very useful in the... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What next for house prices? The house price slowdown that we have long-expected picked up a gear in recent months, suggesting that our forecast for house price inflation to slow to 4% next year is on track . 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Improving trend reasserts itself Our econometric model implies that the easing injob growth and the rise in the unemployment ratein July were just blips in otherwise improvingtrends. We estimate that payroll employment roseby around... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Export rebound won't prompt a shift in neutral stance We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its neutral interest rate bias in next week's policy statement. Although exports have rebounded surprisingly well, the Bank's Governor doesn't seem convinced... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Major fiscal improvement has already occurred The CBO’s latest budget projections highlight the extent of the improvement in America’s fiscalposition in recent years. At the same time, the CBO appears to agree with the Fed’s assessment thatthere... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack A stronger and more widespread recovery Both businesses and households have started to enjoy the fruits of an economicrecovery that appears to be becoming stronger and more widespread. A weightedaverage of the two ISM business activity... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Moderate business profits point to slower GDP growth The slowdown in the growth of business profits in the second quarter runs counter to the consensus view that stronger overall economic growth lies just around the corner. This supports our view that... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the S&P 500? Although the S&P 500 has broken above 2,000 this week for the first time, we doubt that the stock market will go from strength to strength. For now, we are sticking with our forecast that the index... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The rise in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in August to itshighest level since before the recession looks a bit odd when other measures ofconfidence have weakened. Nonetheless... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jun.) The monthly Case-Shiller 20-City measure of house prices posted its second consecutive fall in June. Year-on-year house price inflation has slowed considerably this year, in line with our long... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) July’s spectacular durable goods orders provide a misleadingly strong signal on thestrength of the economy, although the outlook for business investment is improving. 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) The decline in new home sales in July, albeit from an upwardly revised level in June, is further evidence that the new homes sector is failing to share in the wider economic recovery. Nevertheless... 25th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second-quarter economic rebound won't be sustained Canada's economic rebound in the second quarter mainly reflects a bounce-back after bad winter weather dampened economic activity in the first quarter of this year and certain one-off factors that... 25th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response CPI (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.) The unexpected decline in core inflation in July, to 1.7% from 1.8% in June, probably marks a turning point for the second half of this year. With labour market conditions likely to become even more... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen stands her ground on slack If the release of the minutes of July’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday suggested that the Fed had takentwo steps closer to raising interest rates, then today’s speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen at Jackson... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recovery in small business lending to gather pace The main reason why the stock of loans to small businesses has yet to surpass its previous peak is because weak sales have restrained the demand for new borrowing. The recent rise in the NFIB small... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
