US Economics Update Labour market conditions still strong The latest NFIB small business and JOLTS surveys indicate that the disappointing gain in payroll employment in August was just a blip rather than the start of a major slowdown. What’s more, the... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian auto sector an unlikely growth source While the recent surge in new motor vehicle sales is an encouraging sign of household confidence perhaps, we think it is more likely a weather-related bounce back from the slowdown earlier this year... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Confidence to continue climbing We’re not convinced that equity prices will continue to boost consumer confidence, but an acceleration in wage growth should allow confidence to rise further above its long run average. 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) Canada's discouraging employment performance over the past six months is further evidence that the economy is struggling and that the Bank of Canada's needs to keep interest rates low to have any hope... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Spring of hope or winter of despair? Last week was the best of times and the worst of times. Just as it looked as though the US recoverywas finally moving into a higher gear, as credit conditions eased and the fiscal drag faded, the142... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The modest 142,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August, which was well belowthe consensus forecast at 230,000 and the smallest gain this year, will inevitably sparkspeculation that the US recovery... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is there a bubble in US “high”-yield corporate bonds? Despite edging up a little over the summer, the yield of US 7-10 year B-rated corporate bonds remains close to its lowest level in at least a quarter of a century. We think that this is a bubble and... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Gulf between US and euro-zone widens The US and euro-zone economies have diverged further in the past few months, as growth in the single currency area has stalled but the US recovery has stepped up a gear. Moreover, the gap between the... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) The further growth in export volumes in July is encouraging, but we're still not convinced this strength will be sustained. Nevertheless, with imports increasing at a more moderate pace, the... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) & ADP (Aug.) The further decline in the trade deficit to a six-month low of $40.5bn in July, from $40.8bn the month before, suggests that net external trade will make a larger positive contribution to third... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada rightly remains neutral on rates The Bank of Canada's neutral policy statement on the rate outlook showed that it isn't concerned about the recent uptick in inflation, since this is due to temporary factors rather than any... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) Mortgage applications for home purchase fell to their lowest level since 1995 in August. Yet other measures of mortgage market activity, such as the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey, suggest that... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Gulf between US and euro-zone widens further The global manufacturing PMI, published by Markit today, suggests that world GDP growth may pickup a bit further in the third quarter after rebounding in the second. But the imbalance between thefast... 2nd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Having all-but stalled during the previous three months, the CoreLogic measure of house prices posted a decent gain in July. But this is probably no more than a temporary reprieve, and we expect house... 2nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage cost inflation likely fell to record low Although some evidence suggests that hourly wages may have risen more quickly recently, labour productivity has also risen as well, resulting in smaller increases in unit labour costs, or slower wage... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2014) After slowing more than previously thought in Q1, Canada's economy rebounded more strongly than expected in Q2, posting annualised GDP growth of 3.1%. The 17.8% rebound in exports mainly reflects the... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
