Global Markets Update Is this the beginning of a bear market in US equities? The decline of more than 5% in the S&P 500 since its mid-September high is unlikely to mark the beginning of a bear market. This is because bear markets typically only occur in, and around, recessions... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price slump shouldn't threaten domestic producers Canada's position as a large energy net exporter obviously means that it is exposed to any slump in world oil prices. Should the recent slump in oil prices persist, then that would certainly leave its... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence still short of the mark While the Bank of Canada's latest Business Outlook Survey results point to an improvement in the outlook for sales growth, firms still aren't confident enough in that outlook to boost investment... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The stronger than expected 74,100 increase in employment in September, which pushed the unemployment rate down to 6.8%, from 7.0%, suggests that the economy might finally be catching fire. One month... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Drop in yields and oil price trump higher dollar We expect the boost from lower long-term interest rates to outweigh any negative impact on economic growth from the stronger dollar. The 10-year yield started the year at 3.0%, but most recently has... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Investors and cash buyers pull back The 18% m/m surge in new home sales in August was not enough to outweigh the 1.8% m/m decline in the much larger existing homes market. Strikingly, this decline was due to a weakening in demand from... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How do the US and UK monetary policy outlooks differ? Although we anticipate that the first interest rate hikes in both the US and the UK will come around the same time, towards the end of the first quarter next year, we expect the subsequent pace of... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Falling oil prices to curb investor enthusiasm The recent decline in crude oil prices won't affect the immediate outlook for oil & gas production but, if sustained, lower oil prices could curb investment in Canada's oil sands, particularly as... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update More signs of labour market strength The fall in part-time employment is one more positive trend to emerge from September’s Employment Report. And more recent releases provide further signs that the labour market is improving rapidly. 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The increase in the CoreLogic measure of house prices in August, although barely half the average monthly gain of 2012 and 2013, suggests that the housing market is putting the soft patch in prices... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US stock market running out of steam Since the end of August, the S&P 500 has fallen by about 2%. Although September’s US Employment Report was healthy, with the jobless rate falling below 6% for the first time in more than six years, a... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble unlikely to prompt a rate hike Housing bubble fears have prompted some commentators to suggest that the Bank of Canada should hike interest rates before it's too late. But since the Bank doesn't typically target asset price... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) Canada's roller-coaster export performance continued in August, with exports tumbling after strong gains in the previous months. Even so, the export recovery still looks broadly intact. Indeed, a... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US recovery relatively immune to global slowdown We don’t think that the US will catch the latest economic cold that is currently afflicting Europe and parts of Asia. It’s worth remembering that the US is a fairly closed economy, which means it’s... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & Int. Trade (Aug.) September’s strong Employment Report and August’s decent international trade release have increased the chances that the Fed will raise interest rates next March, as we have been forecasting for some... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US natural gas stocks still low going into withdrawal season Lower stocks of natural gas in the US compared to this time last year make it more likely that there will be a repeat of the price spikes seen last winter. However, even if this winter is mild, we... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
