Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising US Treasury yields would not slow EM growth Concerns that the policy tightening implied by the latest Fed forecasts would eventually lead to higher US Treasury yields and hinder EM growth are probably misplaced. A handful of EMs arevulnerable... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed pushes up rate projections Although the Fed opted to keep the language in the FOMC statement that there will be a "considerable time" between the end of the asset purchases in October and the first rate hike, we suspect that... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further softening in core price pressures in August eases the pressure on the Fedto weaken its “considerable time” rate pledge at today’s policy meeting. 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada isn't targeting lower dollar Governor Stephen Poloz's reminder today that the Bank of Canada has no desire to use monetary policy to target a weaker currency doesn't mean that the Canadian dollar won't continue to depreciate over... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jul.) The continued strength in manufacturing sales in July, combined with some upward revisions to the gains in the months before, suggests that the economy began the third quarter on a stronger footing... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will UK Gilts continue to outperform US Treasuries? The yield of 10-year Gilts has fallen clearly below that of 10-year Treasuries for the first time since the spring. Whilst it would be premature to talk of a significant decoupling, we suspect that UK... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Yet another distortion in US stock market valuation This Thursday, the Federal Reserve will publish its latest Financial Accounts of the United States for Q2. These are likely to show that the market value of equities issued by US non-financial... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The fall in industrial production in August was just due to problems seasonally adjusting autos production and is therefore not a sign that the recovery is running out of steam. The more upbeat survey... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher capacity utilisation rate overstates economic conditions In his first 100 days in office, Egypt’s President al- Sisi has made more progress in tackling the country’s economic problems than many, including ourselves, had expected. In particular, his... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug.) The Teranet-National Bank national composite house price index showed that house price inflation rose to 5.0% in August, up slightly from 4.9% in July. Nevertheless, the sales-to-listings ratio... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising dollar reflects economic strength Even a further rise in the dollar above its current four-year high won’t prevent a period of higher inflation and stronger GDP growth. It would be odd to conclude that the dollar will significantly... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The solid rise in retail sales in August, together with the upward revision in July, suggests that annualised real consumption growth in the third quarter as a whole will come in between 1.5% and 2.0%... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How significant is the new Case-Shiller house price index? The new Case-Shiller house price index improves on its predecessors by giving a monthly read on nationa l house prices. The historical revisions suggest that the housing bust was not as deep as... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sharp slowdown in house price inflation The new Case-Shiller national house price index, now released on a monthly basis, shows seasonally-adjusted prices falling in each of April, May and June. This is a dramatic reversal from the average... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed's forward guidance could change again The Fed will continue to trim its asset purchases at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes on the 17 th September. There is the possibility that it could also tweak its forward guidance and/or... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing imbalances point to a slowdown ahead Housing starts have been running at close to 190,000 units over the past year, well above demographic demand, which we estimate is somewhere in the range of 175,000 to 185,000 units. Meanwhile, newly... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
