US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The leap in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in October to a seven-year high suggests that households are becoming more upbeat just as the crucial holiday shopping season draws... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q3/Aug.) Today’s housing market data revealed a further slowdown in underlying house price growth, but the outlook for rental value growth is strengthening. 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Support from the Fed’s QE is not about to disappear The widely anticipated completion of the Fed’s purchases under QE3 need not mark the end of the policy’s support for global asset prices. As it happens, QE3 was not much of a boon to emerging markets... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) The rebound in orders for new durable goods in May will help ease any fears that the economy is headed for a double-dip recession. Nevertheless, it doesn't change the broader picture that economic... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower oil price adds to risks Alongside the potential for a sharp correction in the domestic housing market, the recent slump in crude oil prices represents a second risk to the Canadian economic outlook. We expect GDP growth to... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Still waiting for that elusive economic rebound The recent run of weak data confirms that the economy fared even worse in August after barely growing in July. Encouragingly, leading indicators point to a spectacular rebound in September, though it... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) New home sales stalled in September, following the previous month’s jump. But with the economic backdrop still favourable and mortgage rates low, we expect sales will resume their upwards trend soon. 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to complete QE taper with GDP growth still strong Recent financial market volatility won’t prevent the Fed from announcing an end to its asset purchases this week, at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The bottom line is that... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Drop in jobless claims illustrates labour market strength There are still areas of the labour market where conditions could be better, particularly the elevated number of part-time workers looking for full-time work and the lack of a meaningful acceleration... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada ditches neutral forward guidance The Bank of Canada's decision to drop its neutral forward guidance reflects a change in its policy communications approach and not the interest rate outlook. With less explicit forward guidance to go... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Timing of first hike becomes more finely balanced While the recent financial market volatility won’t prevent the Fed from announcing an end to its asset purchases at the meeting due to conclude on Wednesday 29th, it does mean the Fed is unlikely to... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail sales drop back to underlying trend The small decline in August retail sales volumes, combined with the meagre gain in wholesale sales reported earlier this week, supports our view that the economy lost some momentum in the third... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The drag from lower gasoline prices is only just beginning and will eventually result in CPI inflation falling from 1.7% in September to just 1.2% in December. Core inflation will remain higher, but... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) The increase in existing home sales in September took sales activity to a 12-month high. Falling mortgage interest rates and a steadily improving labour market bode well for existing home sales from... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators (Sep.) The tapering of the Fed's monthly asset purchases might finally be having a knock-on impact on the growth rates of the broader monetary aggregates. Our estimate of the broadest M3 measure shows that... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Decline in oil prices still no major threat The further slide in world crude oil prices has prompted speculation that Canada's booming energy sector may soon swing into reverse, dragging the economy under with it. But even if oil prices remain... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
