Global Markets Update The dollar is likely to rise even further Rather than being a sign that global growth is faltering, the recent decline in international oil prices mainly reflects improving supply conditions. As such, it should provide a modest boost to... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflation outlook has not changed While the recent softening in price pressures suggests that core inflation won’t hit the Fed’s 2% target until a bit later than we previously thought, we still think it will get there by mid-2015... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) Stripping out the aircraft-related volatility, the underlying strength in capital goods orders and shipments in August indicates that business investment in equipment continues to expand at a healthy... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Slowdown in job growth at odds with other evidence Our econometric model suggests that the recent slowdown in payroll employment growth is at odds with the strengthening in other measures of labour market conditions. As such, we expect that August’s... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation will bounce back Despite the weaker core inflation readings over the past couple of months, we still expect core inflation to climb gradually, rising above the Fed's 2% target in the first half of next year... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) The increase in new home sales to a six-year high in August suggests that looser credit conditions and strengthening economic activity are finally giving households the confidence to purchase a new... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July's flat retail sales volumes combined with the decline in wholesale sales reported last week indicate that the economic recovery lost some momentum at the start of the third quarter. This is... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Even as the Fed has reduced the pace of its monthly asset purchases, the annual rate of broad money growth has remained largely stable at close to 6%. 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) The decline in existing home sales in August hints at a vulnerability in the recovery in sales activity – it’s built on higher than normal levels of cash buyers and investors. These groups took a step... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Durability of economic recovery still in doubt After a slow start to the year, partly due to bad weather, the recent run of good data since then indicate that the economy continued to grow well above its potential annualised growth rate of 2.0% in... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) The unexpected rise in the official core inflation rate, mainly due to recent price hikes in household communications, doesn't appear to reflect any tightening in domestic economic conditions and... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Private sector debt growth accelerates Private sector debt growth accelerated in the second quarter, as both household and business borrowing increased at a healthy pace. Nevertheless, debt growth is still running at a slower pace than... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Return to normalcy? The recent strength evident in much of the incoming survey and activity data suggeststhat we were right to believe GDP growth would accelerate once credit conditions eased and thefiscal drag faded. We... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Other developments offset stronger dollar Even though the dollar has recently risen to a four-year high, other developments mean that overall financial conditions are supporting the economy by more than they were earlier in the year. As such... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) The decline in housing starts in August was worse than we or the consensus had anticipated and stands in stark contrast to surging homebuilder confidence. This weakness should prove temporary, however... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising US Treasury yields would not slow EM growth Concerns that the policy tightening implied by the latest Fed forecasts would eventually lead to higher US Treasury yields and hinder EM growth are probably misplaced. A handful of EMs arevulnerable... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
