US Economics Update More signs of labour market strength The fall in part-time employment is one more positive trend to emerge from September’s Employment Report. And more recent releases provide further signs that the labour market is improving rapidly. 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The increase in the CoreLogic measure of house prices in August, although barely half the average monthly gain of 2012 and 2013, suggests that the housing market is putting the soft patch in prices... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US stock market running out of steam Since the end of August, the S&P 500 has fallen by about 2%. Although September’s US Employment Report was healthy, with the jobless rate falling below 6% for the first time in more than six years, a... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble unlikely to prompt a rate hike Housing bubble fears have prompted some commentators to suggest that the Bank of Canada should hike interest rates before it's too late. But since the Bank doesn't typically target asset price... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) Canada's roller-coaster export performance continued in August, with exports tumbling after strong gains in the previous months. Even so, the export recovery still looks broadly intact. Indeed, a... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US recovery relatively immune to global slowdown We don’t think that the US will catch the latest economic cold that is currently afflicting Europe and parts of Asia. It’s worth remembering that the US is a fairly closed economy, which means it’s... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & Int. Trade (Aug.) September’s strong Employment Report and August’s decent international trade release have increased the chances that the Fed will raise interest rates next March, as we have been forecasting for some... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US natural gas stocks still low going into withdrawal season Lower stocks of natural gas in the US compared to this time last year make it more likely that there will be a repeat of the price spikes seen last winter. However, even if this winter is mild, we... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A stronger economy could be a mixed blessing for US equities A stronger economy would clearly be better news for the US stock market than another recession. But it might not provide much of a boost to share prices if the labour market becomes too tight. If... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Signs of weaker global manufacturing in September Business surveys published today underline that growth in the euro-zone is slowing whereas the US economy remains strong. They also confirm that there has been a sharp slowdown in the UK’s... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index in September won’t cause any sleepless nights at the Fed when the index has fallen from a high level and when it is still consistent with GDP growing at an... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update iPhone 6 release won’t be a plus for the economy While the new iPhone release may have some effect on forthcoming consumption and import data, it won’t have any notable effect on GDP. Nonetheless, the outlook for consumption remains positive. 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) The decline in mortgage interest rates to a 15-month low is doing little to revive mortgage applications. But this measure of mortgage market activity does not sit comfortably with some others, which... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Data Response - GDP (Jul.) Canada's weaker than expected GDP data for July suggest that third-quarter GDP growth might turn out to be slightly weaker than our below-consensus forecast of 2.4% annualised, following the weather... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in September doesn’t change the bigger picture that households’ financial positions are stronger now than they have been for most of... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul.) The marginal rise in house prices in July, which did no more than reverse the previous month’s decline, supports our view that house price inflation will slow to 4% y/y by the end of this year. 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
