US Economics Focus Fed's new monetary tools should ensure a smooth rate lift-off When the time comes next year to begin normalising interest rates, we believe that, using the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate and its new liquidity management tools, the Fed will be able to... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Keystone XL delayed again, but likely to be approved next year Despite rejection yesterday, the Keystone export limited (XL) pipeline is likely to be approved early next year when the Republicans take control of the Senate. Eventually this should add to the... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) The decline in housing starts in October was entirely driven by a fall in the volatile multi-family component. With single-family starts, building permits and homebuilder confidence all rising, the... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Cheaper loonie will help to boost tourism trade The recent decline in the value of the Canadian dollar will provide a much-needed boost to domestic tourism. That support, aided by a steadily improving US economy, could add as much as 0.5 percentage... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is QE in Japan and Europe good or bad for the US? Although the Fed recently concluded its quantitative easing (QE), the Bank of Japan has announced an expansion in the pace of its own asset purchases and the ECB is edging closer to full-blown QE. We... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The growth rate of broad money has eased, as the Fed has wound down its asset purchases and expanded its reverse repo and term deposit facilities. As the Fed expands the use of those liquidity... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Production (Oct.) & Empire State (Nov.) The 0.1% m/m fall in industrial production in October will boost concerns that the global slowdown and stronger dollar are taking their toll on activity. While industry should be hit harder than other... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Employment bonanza looks like another false start We suspect that the jobs bonanza over the past two months does not signal an upturn in the economy. The impressive 117,200 positions created in September and October was the strongest two-month... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Expansion of health insurance not boosting wider economy Although 10 million more people now have health insurance following the introduction of the ACAprovisions last year, the data suggest that trends in healthcare consumption and inflation have... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The rise in the University of Michigan’s measure of consumer confidence to an eight-year high in November means there is a very good chance that retailers’ holiday wishes will be granted. 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q3) Strong job creation, falling unemployment and lower mortgage interest rates all helped the downward trend in the number of US households suffering mortgage payment problems continue into the third... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The 0.3% m/m rise in the dollar value of retail sales in October was even stronger than it looks because the headline figure was depressed by a price-related drop in gasoline station sales. Real... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government better positioned to provide stimulus Amidst challenging economic times, the Conservative-led government has fulfilled its pledge to eliminate the Federal budget deficit and is now focused on fortifying its majority government in next... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.) The Teranet-National Bank measure shows that house price inflation held at 5.4% in October, where it is likely to remain for the rest of this year. Nevertheless, the regional breakdown continues to... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House prices regain some poise The various measures of house prices appear to be sending different messages, but on balance it looks like price gains have picked up again following outright falls earlier in the year. The Case-... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed running out of reasons not to hike rates With the unemployment rate now within a whisker of most estimates of the natural rate and more comprehensive measures of wage growth showing a clear acceleration, we believe that the markets are too... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
