US Employment Report Preview Upside risk of a very strong gain in non-farm payrolls Our econometric model points to a 300,000 gain in payrolls in November although, hedging our bets, we have trimmed our actual forecast to 250,000. Nevertheless, any gain above 200,000 should be enough... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) The modest increase in new home sales in October, which only occurred because September’s reading was itself revised downwards, is consistent with a subdued new homes market. Nevertheless, with credit... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A bumper holiday shopping season in store The economic backdrop is a much more reliable guide to the holiday shopping season than sales on Black Friday. With employment rising rapidly, real incomes being boosted by falling gasoline prices and... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods/Personal Inc. & Spending (Oct.) October's durable goods and personal income and spending reports together suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be around 2.5% annualised, whereas we had previously expected it to be closer to 3... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September's stronger than expected 0.8% m/m gain in retail sales validates the recent strength in employment growth in suggesting that the economy ended the third quarter on a reasonably solid footing... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low just ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season shouldn’t worry retailers. Much more important is the improvement... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Sep.) The strongest month-on-month increase in house prices in seven months in September is further evidence that, after the recent slowdown, the pace of house price growth is picking up again. But while a... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slump in gasoline prices an unexpected boon The unexpected slump in the national retail gasoline price, from a peak of $3.80 per gallon in the summer to a near four-year low of $3.00 now, will provide a sizeable boost to fourth-quarter real... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran nuclear deal pushed back until June The extension of the talks between Western powers and Iran over its nuclear programme doesn’t come as a surprise. Nonetheless, lower oil prices should increase the pressure on Tehran to reach a deal... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Plenty of upside for gold despite likely Fed tightening Gold remains out of favour with Western investors and commentators focused on the prospect of tighter US monetary policy and further dollar strength. But we see scope for a decent recovery in the... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Financial conditions index overstates prospects for GDP growth The Bank of Canada's revamped monetary conditions index signals that financial conditions looser than they have been for most of the past 15 years. Normally GDP growth would be expected to accelerate... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) The stronger than expected 2.3% core inflation reading in October won't change the Bank of Canada's mind that ultra low interest rates are needed to tackle the weakness in the real economy that would... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yen's collapse to have only modest impact on US economy Russian activity data for last month suggest that the economy withstood the initial sharp drop in the price of oil better than some had feared. But even so, the big picture is that growth is still... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update This holiday shopping season could be the best in nine years Regardless of what happens on Black Friday, other more useful indicators suggest that this holiday shopping season could be the best in nine years. 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) The sixth increase in seven months took existing home sales to within a whisker of their pre-taper high in October. Existing home sales are benefitting from the decent labour market recovery and the... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s consumer prices data go some way to underlining that price deflation in the US economy is confined to the energy sector. That said, we wouldn’t be surprised if some of the recent fall in... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
