Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's encouraging trade report confirmed that the recovering export sector provided a solid positive contribution of around one percentage point to third-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The increase in the trade deficit to $43.0bn in September, from $40.0bn, means that third-quarter GDP growth is now set to be revised down from the initial 3.5% annualised estimate to about 3.0%... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The month-on-month increase in house prices in September suggests that the housing market is putting the very weak mid-year period behind it. But underlying rates of house price appreciation are still... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the strong dollar a threat to the US stock market? Although the US stock market has rebounded in recent weeks, one development that could cap its upside is a further rally in the dollar. A strengthening currency causes exporters to lose market share... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack likely to persist Indicators show that labour market conditions have deteriorated over the past year or so. The actual amount of slack in the labour market, though, appears to be less than we previously thought. But... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Banks still easing credit conditions despite end of QE3 The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey indicates that commercial banks are making it easier for households and smaller businesses to obtain credit, suggesting that the Fed's QE taper has had no... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index back to a three-year high in October supports our view that the US economy will largely shrug off the recent easing in global demand and the effects of the... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The decline in GDP for August, after the near-stagnation in July, suggests that third-quarter GDP growth may have fallen short of the economy's potential growth rate of 2.0% annualised. 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Q3 GDP growth treat included a seasonal adjustment trick The reported leap in third-quarter defence spending, which added 0.7 percentage points to annualised GDP growth was, as far as we can tell, largely due to a failure of the BEA’s seasonal adjustment... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Faster wage growth could prompt Fed to hike rates The survey-based and anecdotal evidence has been pointing to a sharp acceleration in wage growth for some time, yet the growth rate of the monthly average hourly earnings measure has remained... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Weighing up the FHFA’s mortgage proposals Proposals to lower the minimum down-payment on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-backed mortgages at the same time as reducing banks’ exposure to put-back risk may help accelerate the modest loosening in... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stronger activity data increasingly hard to ignore With QE3 done and dusted, the Fed has emphasised that the incoming economic data will determine when interest rates first rise. Our forecasts that the unemployment rate will fall faster than the Fed... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Going from strength to strength There’s a good chance that October’s Employment Report will send a very strong signal that, despite the recent signs of some softening in overseas demand, the US economy continues to grow at a rapid... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The better than expected 3.5% annualised rise in third-quarter GDP, which was above the 3.0% consensus forecast and even our own 3.3% call, illustrates that the Fed was right to adopt a slightly more... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed halts QE3 and takes slightly more hawkish stance As expected, the Fed today announced an end to its third round of large-scale asset purchases (aka QE3). Slightly less expected, however, is that despite the recent market volatility, the statement... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
