US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) The latest homebuilding figures were a mixed bag, with starts declining in November but only because of an upward revision to October’s estimate. On balance, these data support our view that the... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fed can't delay for much longer The outlook for real economic growth was already looking up even before the recent collapse in energy prices. We expect real GDP growth to accelerate from 2.3% this year to 3.0% in 2015, before... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Production (Nov.) & Empire State (Dec.) November’s industrial production figures build on the message from the recent retail sales data, with both showing that economic activity is unambiguously strong. This may well set the tone for the... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slump in oil prices leaves housing looking even more exposed The Bank of Canada admitted last week that the housing market has completely overshot and that the overvaluation is somewhere in the range of 10% to 30%. If we had to pick a number, it would be close... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Nov.) The Teranet-National Bank measure shows that house price inflation was 5.2% in November, down slightly from 5.4%, easily outpacing growth in household incomes. Accordingly, this only adds to our... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in December to a new 7-year high suggests that the recent strong performance of retail sales will continue in December. 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Small-cap equities may not lag behind for long The unusual gap that has opened up between the economic performance of small firms and the performance of small-cap equity indices is more likely to be closed by a rise in equity prices. After all... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Lower oil prices will hold back economy The slump in the crude oil prices to around US$60 per barrel is a serious threat to domestic business investment and future oil production. With the long-run breakeven cost of most oil sands projects... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Recovery not being driven by a new credit boom The Federal Reserve's third-quarter financial accounts help to dispel two myths about the recovery. First, the pick-up in GDP growth over the past few quarters is not being driven by a renewed boom in... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The strong rise in retail sales in November shows that we were right to dismiss all the reports that holiday sales have been weak. The truth is that the rapid rises in employment mean that this... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How good is the outlook for residential rents? Over the past three years the surge in average house prices has dwarfed the rise in rents. However, over the next few years, those patterns look set to go into reverse, with rents likely to rise at an... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to drop “considerable time” language The upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (17th December), should provide a clear signal whether our non-consensus call that the Fed will hike rates as soon as next March is... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed should watch the NFIB not JOLTs The NFIB small business survey is more useful than the JOLTs survey since it tells us what is going to happen to labour market conditions rather than what has just happened. It suggests that payrolls... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Any rebound in house price inflation will be temporary Tighter supply conditions suggest that the moderation in house price inflation may be about to go into reverse. So, too, do solid rates of economic growth and job creation as well as tentative signs... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Elevated pace of home building adding to risk of bust The recent strength in residential building permits relative to housing starts indicate that the pace of home building may accelerate over the near-term. But that only adds to our concern of a... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the lower oil price a threat to US Treasuries? It is sometimes argued that a lower oil price is a threat to Treasuries because oil exporters typically save a larger share of their income than oil importers and are more inclined to put their... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
