Canada Economics Update Elevated pace of home building adding to risk of bust The recent strength in residential building permits relative to housing starts indicate that the pace of home building may accelerate over the near-term. But that only adds to our concern of a... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the lower oil price a threat to US Treasuries? It is sometimes argued that a lower oil price is a threat to Treasuries because oil exporters typically save a larger share of their income than oil importers and are more inclined to put their... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Data Response - Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Trade (Oct.) The weaker than expected 10,700 decline in employment in November and the uptick in the unemployment rate to 6.6%, from 6.5%, can be forgiven since it comes after extraordinarily strong job reports in... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US Treasury yields set to rise as Fed tightens The yield of 10-year US Treasuries has fallen further over the past month. But we expect it to rise as the Fed tightens policy. Admittedly, during the last major tightening cycle in 2004-2006, it... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Odds of another government shutdown still fairly low There is a good chance that Congress will pass an omnibus spending bill this week, which should keep most of the Federal government funded until next October. We still think it is unlikely that there... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) October’s trade data will quite rightly do little to temper the optimism generated by the Employment Report, even though they suggest that net trade will make a slightly weaker contribution to GDP... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The massive 321,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November, together with the 44,000 upward revision to the two preceding months, bolsters our view that the Fed will begin to hike interest rates as... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still neutral on rate outlook The Bank of Canada's last policy statement for the year retained its neutral stance on the interest rate outlook. While acknowledging that inflation has been firmer than it expected, the statement... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Losing faith in the ISM surveys We are concerned that the ISM activity indices are painting a misleading picture of the strength of the economy. We’re inclined to place more faith in the Markit PMIs, which point to more realistic... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) The low level of mortgage interest rates, signs of an easing in credit conditions and steady gains in employment have yet to be reflected in the data for mortgage applications. But we are optimistic... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slump in oil price will provide a net boost to US economy The US is still a large net importer of crude oil, so the recent collapse in oil prices will provide a net boost to real economic growth of about $150bn or 0.8% of GDP. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) October’s CoreLogic index does not fundamentally alter the picture of moderating house price pressures. And with housing more or less fairly valued, and the cost of borrowing set to rise, a period in... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pick-up in core inflation won't be sustained The pick-up in the official core inflation measure this year is partly due to one-off factors. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada also pays close attention to alternative measures of underlying... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Faster household spending growth likely in Q4 Faster income growth and lower gasoline prices bode well for household spending prospects this holiday season. We expect somewhat faster consumption growth of 3.0%. 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The continued strength of the ISM manufacturing index is starting to look a bit odd when set against the economic backdrop and the other survey evidence. We remain optimistic about the outlook for... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will higher interest rates choke off the housing recovery? Housing will be affordable and a touch undervalued even by the end of 2016, despite the prospect of interest rates rising over that period. The upshot is that the recovery in the housing market will... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
