US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales (Nov./Dec.) The strong rise in new home sales in December, which followed an encouraging gain in existing home sales in the same month, means that housing market supply conditions are tightening. That’s putting... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The weakness in non-defence capital goods shipments in December means that the balance of risks to our estimate that fourth-quarter GDP increased by 3.0% annualised now lie a little to the downside... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rise in US oil stocks supports spot prices The surge in US stocks of oil in the last few weeks has been driven at least in part by attempts to arbitrage low spot prices with higher futures ones. This should support prices over the next few... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget deficit projections dependent on rate outlook Although the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) latest projections show the Federal budget deficit at only 2.6% of GDP in fiscal year 2015, it does still expect the deficit to widen again before the... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Further rate cuts possible, but won't help economy much The Bank of Canada's surprise quarter point rate cut to 0.75% last week, which came in response to the collapse in world oil prices, will only have a small positive impact on the economy. Unless oil... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) December's increase in core inflation, to 2.2% from 2.1%, reflects sector-specific factors and pass-through effects of a lower Canadian dollar already judged by the Bank of Canada as temporary. The... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices finding a floor as precious metals rebound The European Central Bank’s decision to launch a large-scale programme of government bond purchases under quantitative easing (QE) is unlikely to provide a major boost to the prices of global... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) November’s 6% drop in existing home sales always looked suspicious, given the strength of recent macro-economic data and the drop in borrowing costs. So confirmation that sales ended the year on a... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak demand to push the price of cocoa lower Falling cocoa grindings in Europe, North America and Asia suggest that the world has lost some of its sweet tooth. We expect weaker demand and ample supply to push the price of cocoa lower. 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed's patient approach at odds with incoming data While the strength of real economic growth and employment suggest that the Fed should begin to raise interest rates very soon, the mixed news on wages, the lack of any pick-up in core inflation and... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data provide further evidence that traders are stockpiling US crude to take advantage of the difference between low spot prices and higher future ones. 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Consumer confidence soaring While financial markets are concerned that the slump in energy prices and the drop back in long-term interest rates partly reflect the weakness of economic growth in Europe and Asia, consumers have no... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada shocks markets with rate cut The Bank of Canada shocked markets this morning by lowering its policy interest rate from 1.00% to 0.75%, in response to the collapse in oil prices that now threatens the outlook for economic growth... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Low oil prices will hit business profits hard Since oil now accounts for half of Canada's production-weighted commodity price index, the collapse in crude oil prices represents a big downside risk to the outlook for business operating profits... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has foreign demand contributed to the rally in US Treasuries? One development that may have contributed to the rally in US Treasuries, and which seems likely to persist, is demand from overseas in response to rock-bottom bond yields elsewhere in the developed... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) The rise in housing starts in December, as well as the upward revisions to the previous two months’ data, suggests that homebuilding was gathering momentum in the closing stages of 2014. The latest... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
