US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) It is too soon to tell whether the slight moderation in the month-on-month rate of house price inflation in November is the first sign that price pressures are coming off the boil again. Regardless... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Another bumper report The latest evidence suggests that the impressive 321,000 rise in non-farm payroll employment in November was no fluke. We expect that it was followed by a gain of 300,000 in December. That would push... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) The new homes market continues to be very subdued, with a further drop in sales in November pushing the stock of new homes up for the ninth month in a row. But a number of factors, including strong... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3), Durable Goods/Consumption (Nov.) The clear strengthening in activity towards the end of 2014 may prompt some Fed officials to consider whether they need to raise rates before the middle of 2015. 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) October's stronger-than-expected GDP growth reflected more broad-based economic activity and has probably set the stage for stronger fourth-quarter annualised GDP growth than the 2.5% forecast by the... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fall in US natural gas prices likely to be temporary Despite the recent weather-related fall in the price of US natural gas, we still expect prices to trend upwards over the next few years due to higher demand both at home and from overseas. 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of key calls for 2015 and beyond We expect 2015 to be another year of large divergences in the performances of the advanced economies, with the US and the UK leading the pack and the euro-zone and Japan continuing to struggle. But... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing home sale (Nov.) Ignore the usual suspects who will claim that the unexpected 6.1% m/m decline in existing home sales in November is a sign that the housing or wider economic recovery just fell off the rails. They... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook The acceleration in house price growth is temporary House prices have regained fresh upward momentum in recent months. But as existing homeowners and homebuilders respond to higher prices by increasing supply, price gains will stabilise at 4% per annum... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Can the Bank of Canada fight the US Fed? Household imbalances, an uneven export recovery and, more recently, the slump in oil prices are all downside risks to the economic and inflation outlook. That's three reasons for the Bank of Canada to... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The unexpected decline in the official core inflation rate to 2.1% in November, from 2.3%, supports the Bank of Canada's cautious neutral stance on the interest rate outlook. With the slump in oil... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong in 2014 Our macro forecasts for this year turned out to be broadly correct, with GDP growth accelerating,the unemployment rate falling further and the Fed winding down its asset purchase programme.Our big... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is the Norwegian krone now undervalued? Although the Norwegian krone is on course to be the worst performing G-10 currency this year, having depreciated by almost 20% against the US dollar since January, we doubt that it is now... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack An unambiguous strengthening in activity The incoming news on activity has been unambiguously strong and, when taken together with the boost from the further fall in oil prices, has made us more confident that GDP will grow by at least 3%... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's plans for a mid-2015 lift-off may need to be accelerated The FOMC statement issued today had something for everyone but, on balance, it does not dissuade us that unexpectedly strong employment growth over the next few months could still prompt the Fed to... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Downside risks multiplying Even with the US economic recovery moving into a higher gear, the outlook for Canada's economy is, at best, mediocre. Furthermore, there is now a significant risk that a perfect storm of a collapse in... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
