US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Despite the 0.9% m/m fall in the value of retail sales in December, it still looks as though real consumption growth in the fourth quarter was a decent 3.5% annualized and GDP growth was close to 3.0%... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US government bonds? We still expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise this year from its current level of around 1.9% as the Fed begins to tighten policy, but have decided to lower our end-2015 forecast significantly... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys hard to square with wage weakness The latest batch of survey data released this morning suggest that labour market conditions are even stronger than we previously believed and leaves the slowdown in wage growth looking even odder. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What would keep the Fed on hold? Despite the prospect of inflation spending most of this year below zero and the mixed news on wages, we still believe that the Fed will raise rates by June at the latest. Nonetheless, it is worth... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Collapse in oil prices point to stagnant investment The Bank of Canada's latest Business Outlook Survey results show that the collapse in oil prices has significantly undermined domestic business confidence and could well result in a near-stagnation in... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slump in oil price spells danger for Canadian economy The lower global crude oil prices fall, the bigger the negative impact will be for a net exporter like Canada. Alongside the severely overvalued housing market, the collapse in oil prices is a major... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How will lower oil prices affect housing? If production and employment are scaled back, housing markets in some oil-producing States, which have recently been among the most buoyant, could potentially suffer. But any drag that this may... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves provide a further fillip to growth The boost to economic activity from the further plunge in oil prices and decline in 10-year Treasury yields since late last year will more than offset any additional drag from the further rise in the... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The combination of a decent 252,000 rise in payroll employment in December and a further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.6%, from 5.8%, still leaves the door open to the Fed raising interest rates... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.)2 The 4,300 decline in employment in December is a little disappointing, particularly as it follows a 10,700 fall the month before that. To some extent, however, the declines in the final two months of... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Low oil price drives up US high-yield corporate spreads The spreads over Treasuries of US high-yield corporate bonds have risen further since the end of November, continuing their increase since the autumn. This has largely been driven by a rise in... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Deflation: Can "it" happen here after all? The collapse in global crude oil prices means that consumer price inflation will fall below zero in January and could remain in negative territory for most of the next 12 months. Nevertheless, the... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov.) With crude oil prices still in freefall, the deterioration in the monthly trade balance to a deficit of $0.6bn in November, from $0.3bn, is unfortunately only the start of what could develop into a... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The full effects of the plunge in oil prices on the US international trade deficit have yet to be felt, which means that the deficit may soon shrink to a five-year low of around $34bn. 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) The further drop in 30-year mortgage interest rates, to within a whisker of 4%, as well as the rip-roaring performance of the labour market, are yet to be reflected in mortgage applications. But there... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Temporary deflation won’t prevent rate hikes The latest fall in crude oil prices means that headline CPI inflation will drop below zero in January and could remain in negative territory for most of the year. Nevertheless, this bout of deflation... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
