US Economics Weekly Fed positions itself for a June rate hike In her congressional testimony last week, Chair Janet Yellen appeared to lay the groundwork for the Fed to begin raising rates in June. Yes, the exact timing is still data dependent. But assuming we... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Brief deflation won't hold up the Fed Although the CPI inflation rate dipped into negative territory in January, this bout of deflation is likely to be brief and it won't prevent the Fed from beginning to raise its policy rate from near... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q4) At 5.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, the mortgage delinquency rate has fallen close to the long run average of 5.0%-5.5%. Admittedly, the foreclosure start rate and foreclosure inventory rate... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Weather and port dispute are downside risks Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls increased by a slightly more modest 230,000 in February, down from an average monthly gain of 336,000 over the preceding three months. It is... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The decline in the headline CPI inflation rate to only 1.0% in January, from 1.5%, was entirely due gasoline prices, which fell by 26.9% over the past year. Excluding food, energy and other volatile... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Durable Goods Orders (Jan.) The 0.7% m/m decline in consumer prices in January was entirely due to a massive 18.7% m/m fall in gasoline prices. As a result, the annual rate of inflation fell to -0.1%, which is technically a... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The latest data show that US oil stocks are climbing at an increasing rate as maintenance work at refineries means that even more oil is funnelled into storage. 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) New home sales sustained almost all of December’s seven-year high in January, falling by a marginal 0.2% m/m. The strong labour market and loosening mortgage credit conditions mean that the outlook... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will US energy exports be a game-changer for global markets? A fast-changing regulatory background is becoming increasingly important to global energy markets. In this Energy Watch, we examine how the recent fall in oil prices has affected the outlook for US... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the US stock market? The US stock market has weathered the approach of monetary tightening well and we expect it to continue to do so once the FOMC begins to raise the federal funds rate. Nonetheless, we would be... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Despite falling in February, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence continues to show that consumers have started 2015 in an optimistic mood. Confidence is still at a level consistent... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen positions the Fed for a June rate hike Chair Janet Yellen's prepared congressional testimony, which struck a more upbeat tone on labour market conditions and included a detailed discussion of how the forward guidance will be amended... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Dec.) December marked the fourth consecutive month during which house prices rose by at least 0.5% m/m. The slight acceleration in price growth at the end of last year reflects the tightening in housing... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) The drop in home sales at the start of 2015 is not a sign that the (admittedly lacklustre) housing recovery is coming off the rails. Strong employment growth and signs that wage growth will soon... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada avoids deflation... at least for now This week we expect to learn on Thursday that headline CPI inflation fell to 1.0% in January, from 1.5%, principally because of the slump in energy prices last month. With crude oil and retail... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA Weekly Export Sales (12th Feb.) Today’s US weekly export sales data show a further slump in demand for US wheat. And while exports of soybeans also fell sharply, this is likely, at least in part, to be due to seasonal factors... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
