US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to $46.6bn in December, from $39.8bn, may have wrong-footed the markets (the consensus forecast was $38.0bn). But it was broadly in line with the assumptions that the... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Lower mortgage rates won't prevent housing correction Lower mortgage rates won't prevent home sales and prices falling sharply in regions directly hit by the slump in oil prices. While they might support housing activity in other key markets, we fear... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) House price pressures came off the boil at the end of 2014, with the year-on-year rate of house price inflation at or around 5% during the final four months of the year. With the supply of homes for... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a one-year low of 53.5 in January, from 55.1, reflects the recent surge in the dollar and the weakness of global demand. 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax on profits held abroad could be worth 1.5% of GDP The funds raised by President Obama’s proposals to tax foreign earnings could, in theory, provide a 1.5% boost to GDP. Despite tax reform being a shared goal of both parties, however, there is no... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household balance sheet risks unevenly spread The latest Survey of Financial Security reveals that household balance sheet risks have increased and the burden of that risk is concentrated among individuals in the 35 to 44 age bracket. Enamoured... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November's weaker than expected 0.2% m/m decline in GDP suggests that the economy grew by no more than 2.0% annualised in Q4 last year. That's well below the Bank of Canada's estimate of 2.5%... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Big number of small winners > small number of big losers Last week, mixed news on corporate earnings and an unexpected decline in underlying capital goods orders in December renewed fears that recent market moves are somehow a net negative for the US... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The 2.6% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was slightly below the 3.0% consensus forecast but, following the breakneck 5.0% gain in the third quarter of last year, this slowdown is nothing to... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership and Vacancy Rates (Q4) The homeownership rate fell again at the end of last year, but the decade-long decline in the share of the population who own their home may now be drawing to an end. In the meantime, however, supply... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s really happening to US inflation expectations? To what extent have recent declines in US bond market-based measures of inflation expectations been driven by changes in expectations for inflation? This is neither a conundrum nor as stupid a... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Next refinancing boom won’t be as big as the last The recent decline in mortgage interest rates will trigger a refinancing boom that will span the first half of 2015. But it will be more modest than the one in 2012, and the benefits in terms of lower... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview A strong employment gain should trigger wages rebound Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls increased by as much as 250,000 in January, which would broadly match the increase in December. As a result, we expect the unemployment rate to... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data show a further surge in US crude oil stocks as traders continue to store oil to take advantage of high futures prices. 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Are lower crude oil prices here to stay? The slump in oil prices over the last six months has vindicated the bearish view we have held for several years. Our central forecast is that the price of Brent will recover to $60 per barrel by the... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Wage puzzle not explained by mix of jobs created The lack of any meaningful pick-up in the growth rate of average hourly earnings over the past 12 months, even as the unemployment rate has fallen below 6%, is not because of the poor quality of the... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
