US Economics Weekly Oil price slump bad news for Texas and North Dakota The collapse in crude oil prices does not bode well for Texas and North Dakota, the two key producers of shale oil. These states have experienced a surge in oil production since 2008 and are now... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have Basel III regulations fuelled the rally in US Treasuries? Basel III regulations appear to have increased US banks’ demand for Treasuries and helped to depress yields at the short end of the curve. What’s more, the continued phasing in of the regulations... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again The slump in oil prices has dramatically altered the outlook for economic growth and inflation. Following the Bank of Canada's surprise move last month to cut its policy rate to 0.75%, from 1.00%... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) The Teranet-National Bank index shows that house price inflation slowed to 4.7% in January, from 4.9% in December, which reflects the recent softening in housing activity triggered by the slump in... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Don’t expect China, Russia or the US to save Greece Suggestions that China or Russia might come to Greece’s rescue are wishful thinking as it is not in the economic or political interests of either country to do so. Nor is it likely that the US will... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) Even if we ignore the 0.8% m/m drop in January's retail sales, since it was entirely due to a massive 9.3% m/m price-related slump in the value of gasoline station sales, non-gas sales were still only... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another week of record stock levels and production will disappoint those hoping that last week’s surge in prices was the start of a new bull market. However, the rate of growth of stocks and output is... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recent market moves a net positive for GDP growth As a result of the recent slump in crude oil prices and the decline in long-term borrowing costs, we are raising our real GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 3.3%, from 3.0%. The boost to real consumption... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys highlight labour market strength The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys point to further strong job gains and a pick-up in wage growth. 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Household formation snaps back The Census Bureau’s estimate of household formation as part of its Homeownership & Vacancy Survey was a very encouraging 1.7m in 2014. Admittedly, that’s significantly above the alternative Current... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) January's stronger than expected 35,400 gain in employment was driven entirely by a surge in part-time jobs. Accordingly, we wouldn't read too much into the small decline in the official jobless rate... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How big a threat is Fed tightening to gold prices? If nothing else changes, earlier hikes in interest rates by the US central bank would be likely to undermine the prices of precious metals, notably gold and silver. The 2% fall in the gold price after... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Muted productivity growth holding back real wage gains The weakness of wage growth is partly due to the near-stagnation in productivity. Unfortunately, the news last week that non-farm productivity was unchanged over 2014 as a whole, suggests there is... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) We keep trying to tell everyone that the US economy is enjoying a period of unusual strength, maybe now people will believe us. Non-farm payroll employment increased by 257,000 in January and the... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) The trade deficit widened slightly to C$0.6bn in December, from C$0.3bn, but that increase was actually much smaller than expected. An encouraging rebound in export volumes more than offset the... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has “safe-haven” demand driven US Treasury yields down? While demand for US Treasuries as a “safe haven” may have increased over the past year, we doubt this has contributed significantly to the sharp decline in their yields. Other factors that are also... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
