Canada Economics Weekly Canada avoids deflation... at least for now This week we expect to learn on Thursday that headline CPI inflation fell to 1.0% in January, from 1.5%, principally because of the slump in energy prices last month. With crude oil and retail... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA Weekly Export Sales (12th Feb.) Today’s US weekly export sales data show a further slump in demand for US wheat. And while exports of soybeans also fell sharply, this is likely, at least in part, to be due to seasonal factors... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will sterling’s renewed strength be maintained? Sterling is one of the only major currencies to have appreciated against the US dollar over the past month. However, we doubt its renewed strength will last. 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Dec 14) The 2.0% m/m fall in the value of retail sales in December suggests that Canadian consumers have taken flight, perhaps fearful for their jobs in the wake of the fallout from the energy price collapse... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan 15) The strong pace of growth in both broad money and bank loans is another reason to believe that the temporary bout of negative inflation, which almost certainly began last month, will not develop into... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dip into deflation will be brief This week we expect to learn that, principally because of the recent collapse in energy prices, US headline inflation plummeted into negative territory in January. Once the temporary effects from... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Sterling’s strength unlikely to last Sterling has been one of the few major currencies to appreciate against the US dollar over the past month. As a result the real effective exchange rate is now around 5% above its ten-year average and... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report There is no sign of a drop off in US oil production in the latest data, nor any pick-up in demand, as US oil stocks surge again. 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jan.) The modest 0.2% m/m increase in industrial production in January reflects the early impact of the collapse in energy prices on the mining sector. Otherwise, manufacturing output increased by a... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) With mortgage credit conditions loosening, the labour market on fire and household formation strengthening, January’s decline in housing starts should soon give way to solid gains in homebuilding. 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Is the bull market in US Treasuries over? US Treasuries have come under pressure recently amid signs that the labour market is on fire. But while we think the bull market in government bonds may be over, we expect only a slow grind higher in... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US natural gas to burn brighter this year A combination of lower production and higher demand means that US natural gas prices should rise over the next few years, regardless of the weather. 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong dollar likely to dent US soybean exports US wheat exports have struggled this year as the rising US dollar reduces competitiveness. We think the same could happen to soybean exports as the South American harvest gets under way. 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What could the Bank of Canada do beyond rate cuts? The Bank of Canada's recent focus on the dangers to the economy of low oil prices may well prompt it to cut interest rates again. At only 0.75% now, however, the scope for additional interest rate... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) December's stronger than expected gain in manufacturing sales suggests that GDP grew more strongly than we had assumed in that month. We now estimate that fourth-quarter GDP expanded by 2.4%... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The fall in February's University of Michigan consumer confidence index is nothing to be alarmed about. The decline merely reversed the gain in January and, other than that reading last month... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
