US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) Together with the rise in existing home sales reported yesterday, the surge in new home sales, to a seven-year high in February, appears to confirm that the weakness in housing activity at the start... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The 0.2% m/m increase in February's consumer prices was enough to pull the US out of deflation after only one month, with the annual inflation rate rebounding from -0.1% to 0.0%. But there is a good... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) The modest rise in existing home sales in February suggests that the market is now recovering after a weak start to the year. Looser credit conditions and the strength of the wider economy should... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy likely to struggle for longer than others expect After slowing in the final quarter of last year, the economy appears to have lost considerably more momentum this quarter, with GDP growth likely to be no better than 1.0% annualised, below the... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Are lower oil prices a net negative for the US after all? Our initial view that lower oil prices would be a net positive for the real economy is not borne out in the first quarter data. The negative impact on mining investment almost outweighed the positive... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) While February's headline inflation rate remained at 1.0%, the core inflation rate eased to 2.1%, from 2.2%. These figures by themselves won't sway the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Dovish Fed cheers commodity markets Hints that the Fed will keep US interest rates low by past standards even when it does start to return them towards more normal levels took the steam out of the rally in the dollar and supported... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Does the Fed most fear a potential bond market rout? The downward revisions to the FOMC's interest rate projections last week suggest that Fed officials are caught in two minds between beginning to hike rates in June or September. We still think that a... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Time to think again about US natural gas prices? A relatively mild winter, at least across most of the country, and a continued increase in production have allowed gas stocks to rebuild and prices to fall. However, a fall in the number rigs drilling... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Fed policy unlikely to have major impact on rupee The Indian rupee has taken Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in its stride, with the currency dropping only fractionally against the US dollar since then. Looking ahead, the economy is in much better shape to... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy slowing sharper than headlines suggest Canada's economy continued to lose momentum in the final quarter of last year and the slowdown was only partly due to lower oil prices. Furthermore, the seemingly gradual slowdown in headline GDP... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Stronger dollar dominates Commodity prices have been dragged lower across the board by the strength of the dollar over the last month. Concerns about Chinese demand have also weighed on prices, particularly of industrial... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy should be able to cope with Fed tightening Concerns about the global impact of tighter Fed policy are likely to resurface later this year, but we think these worries are exaggerated. Even if rates are hiked, US monetary policy will remain... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the US headed for another weather-related contraction? Even after the run of weaker economic data for February, we still expect first-quarter GDP growth to be close to 2.0% annualised. It is pretty obvious by now that, for the second year in a row, the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed drops "patient" but also lowers rate projections Although the Fed dropped its pledge that it could be "patient" in beginning to normalise monetary policy, paving the way for a June lift-off, the substantial downgrades to the interest rate forecasts... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold prices to rebound despite higher US interest rates The conventional view is that the price of gold will inevitably suffer large and sustained falls when the Fed begins to return US interest rates towards more normal levels. But while we would expect... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
