Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A fall in US output and higher demand from refineries helped to reduce the amount of oil flowing into storage last week. But stocks are still rising. 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The modest decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 22-month low of 51.5 in March, from 52.9, illustrates that the stronger dollar and soft overseas demand are still an obstacle for export... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Weak data for March show that the mortgage market continues to stagnate. However, although refinancing activity will fade as interest rates rise, the conditions are in place for stronger home purchase... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) Although the 0.1% m/m decline in January's GDP was more mild than most expected, the first signs of a slump in oil and gas drilling points to more weakness ahead. As things stand now, we estimate the... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 101.3 in March, from 98.8, should reassure those worried that households haven't yet spent their savings stemming from the slump... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen, Bernanke and the equilibrium real rate In an attempt to justify leaving the fed funds rate at near-zero until some time later this year, Fed Chair Janet Yellen last week hinted that she thought the current equilibrium (or neutral) real... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Impact of oil price shock bigger than most think The collapse in domestic drilling activity, triggered by the slump in oil prices, which has been compounded by another year of unseasonably bad winter weather, has been severe enough to indicate that... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing will continue to normalise A gradual rise in borrowing costs as the Fed raises interest rates from historic lows won’t derail the housing recovery. We expect favourable affordability, looser credit conditions and the strength... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rise (and fall) of the machines The recent weakness in durable goods orders and shipments is not due to a mining-related slump triggered by the collapse in oil prices. Instead, it is principally due to a drop back in industrial... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in no hurry to cut rates The speech earlier today by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and his remarks during the press release shortly afterwards suggest that the Bank isn't in any hurry to cut rates further. Accordingly... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Decline in mining employment will be relatively modest Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by 240,000 in March. We anticipate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%. 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Oil and gasoline stocks continued to diverge last week as drivers took further advantage of low fuel prices. 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slump in productivity growth could be pivotal Fed officials haven't had a lot to say about the slump in productivity growth but, just as the upsurge in productivity growth in the 1990s was crucial in allowing the Fed to leave rates lower for... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) Equipment investment probably contracted in the first quarter, but the improving survey evidence points to a rebound in the second quarter. The consensus forecast that durable goods orders increased... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The further acceleration in broad money growth in February is indicative of a strengthening real economic recovery that will eventually put more upward pressure on underlying inflation. The annual... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the euro-zone converge with the US? While lower inflation and the drop in the euro might boost growth in the euro-zone relative to that in the US, structural constraints, respective policy conditions and the effects of the Greek crisis... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
