US Economics Update Fed drops "patient" but also lowers rate projections Although the Fed dropped its pledge that it could be "patient" in beginning to normalise monetary policy, paving the way for a June lift-off, the substantial downgrades to the interest rate forecasts... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold prices to rebound despite higher US interest rates The conventional view is that the price of gold will inevitably suffer large and sustained falls when the Fed begins to return US interest rates towards more normal levels. But while we would expect... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A jump in US crude imports helped propel oil stocks to yet another record high last week. However, gasoline stocks appear to have peaked, at least for now. 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are labour shortages still holding back homebuilding? Anecdotal evidence suggests that labour shortages continue to hold back homebuilding. However, there are few signs in the macroeconomic data of a widespread problem. Instead, we expect stronger... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jan.) January's larger than expected decline in manufacturing sales, which partly reflects the petroleum industry downturn, suggests that the economy started the year poorly. The balance of risks around our... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does the US Fed mean for Australia and New Zealand Any rise in government bond yields in Australia and New Zealand triggered by the US Fed taking a step closer to raising rates is likely to be temporary, while any weakening in the exchange rates of... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) The collapse in housing starts in February was largely a result of the unseasonably severe winter weather affecting the Northeast. With the wider economy growing strongly and credit conditions... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How worried should we be about the strong dollar? Fears over the outlook for emerging markets have resurfaced over the past few days, with the latest concerns focusing on the impact that a strong dollar will have on EM balance sheets. In our view... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is growth in the euro-zone about to outpace that in the US? Some indicators suggest that the euro-zone economy may grow faster than the US in Q1. But this is largely because unusually severe weather has hit US activity. While the euro-zone economy has gained... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong dollar to put further pressure on price of soybeans The large fall in weekly soybean export sales suggests that the strong dollar is starting to reduce the competitiveness of US exporters. And with a large Brazilian harvest underway, we think the price... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s industrial production figures continue the recent run of weak news on the US economy and may make some Fed officials more inclined to keep interest rates on hold for longer. Nonetheless, we... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar will remain down for a long time The slump in crude oil prices has changed the Bank of Canada's game plan and, we fear, could prove to be the trigger that bursts the housing bubble, derailing the economy in the process. Under these... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) February's modest decline in employment and rise in the unemployment rate, to 6.8% from 6.6%, reflects the early negative effects of a downturn in the mining sector. Accordingly, this supports our... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate sector boosts its borrowing The $79bn increase in household debt in the fourth quarter was dwarfed by the $211bn increase in non-financial corporate debt. The latter was the biggest increase since 2007. 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) For the second year in a row, the unseasonably severe winter weather appears to have hit retail sales, which contracted by 0.6% m/m in February. As a result, we now anticipate that first-quarter GDP... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Feb.) The Teranet-National Bank index shows that house price inflation slowed to 4.4% in February, from 4.7% in January, partly due to the abrupt slowdown in housing activity in regions hit by the slump in... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
