US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May) Refinancing activity took another big hit in May as mortgage interest rates rose to their highest level this year. However, mortgage applications for home purchase held on to their recent gains and we... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update How helpful are the US weekly oil production data? US weekly production figures have been distorted in the last two weeks by pipeline shutdowns and statistical revisions, but they can still offer some insight into trends in US oil production. 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) The CoreLogic index continues to show a rapid acceleration in house price inflation. But downward revisions to previous data, as well as the recent weakness in consumer spending, mean we are inclined... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The modest improvement in the ISM manufacturing index to 52.8 in May, from 51.5, puts it at a level that historically has been consistent with GDP growth of around 2%. Accordingly, even though the... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower loonie's influence on core inflation waning While headline inflation has fallen sharply due to lower energy prices, the boost to core inflation from the lower Canadian dollar may fade sooner than most realise. Wholesale price inflation, which... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is real GDP really mis-measured? The evidence of a seasonal quirk in the first-quarter GDP growth figures is pretty overwhelming. The same skewed pattern appears to have repeated itself this year too, with the 0.7% contraction in GDP... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1) The unexpected 0.6% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP suggests that the Bank of Canada's single 25 basis point rate cut in January may not have been enough insurance against the oil price slump... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market appears to be strengthening Our econometric model points to a 280,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May and we also expect the unemployment rate to edge down to 5.3%. 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s US data provide mixed signals, with stocks of crude oil falling and demand from refineries increasing, but production rising sharply. 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada signals no change in rate outlook The Bank of Canada's policy statement this morning showed that it remains confident in its optimistic growth outlook and believes that the January rate cut was enough insurance against the oil price... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Broad money growth has slowed slightly, with the annual growth rate of our M3 measure falling to a six-month low of 5.6% in April. More importantly, however, the growth rate of bank loans continues to... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Evidence of Q2 rebound still mixed We still firmly believe that the weakness of first-quarter GDP was principally due to the unseasonably severe winter, the meltdown in the shale oil industry and possibly some seasonal quirks too. In... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (Mar./Apr.) New home sales reversed much of the previous month’s decline in April. For now, this doesn’t seem to be exerting much upward pressure on price growth. Nonetheless, the conditions are in place for... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) April's durable goods figures confirm that, following the earlier disruption caused by the unseasonably cold weather in the Northeast and the West Coast port dispute, the factory sector was getting... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household debt becoming a burden The all-clear siren sounded by the Fraser Institute last week on household debt is misleading. The debt service metric they use only captures the interest cost portion of debt, which completely misses... 25th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response CPI (Apr.) & Retail Sales (Mar.) While headline inflation fell below the Bank of Canada's 1% to 3% target range in April , the ongoing impact of the weaker loonie meant that core inflation rate was still as high as 2.3%. The impact... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
