US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The surge in the trade deficit to a massive $51.4bn in March, from $35.9bn, means that the economy contracted slightly in the first quarter. Nevertheless, the enormous 7.7% m/m jump in imports is... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) Although the CoreLogic index of house prices surged again in March, we suspect that it is somewhat overstating the true strength of the market. 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz singing from same old hymn book In his appearance before the House of Commons Finance Committee last week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz reassured policymakers that the economy is showing signs of progress and that the... 4th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) Although it was unchanged at 51.5 in April, the ISM manufacturing index is still at a level consistent with GDP growth of nearly 2% annualised. Given the extent of the dollar's appreciation over the... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) Although February's GDP stagnation was a more mild result than most expected, the details indicated that the fallout from the slump in oil prices hasn't really hit yet, while other parts of the non... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview March weakness unlikely to be repeated in April We don't think that the unexpectedly weak 126,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in March signals the start of a deterioration in labour market conditions. Other indicators have remained at robust levels... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed acknowledges first-quarter slowdown The latest FOMC statement released today suggests that Fed officials still believe economic growth and inflation will rebound. But until they see evidence of such a rebound, which could take another... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data provide more evidence that the growth in US oil stocks is starting to slow, although it will still be some time before stocks actually fall. 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The economy all but stagnated in the first quarter, as lower energy prices triggered a big drop in mining investment, but did little to boost consumer spending because of the impact of the... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates / Case-Shiller (Q1/Feb.) Although today’s data suggest house price growth slowed slightly at the start of the year, they support our view that rental inflation could soon reach a 25-year high. 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US rig count continues to drop Another large fall in the US active rig count last week has disappointed those who had hoped it was stabilising. But they probably won’t have to wait too much longer to see a floor. 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pace of payroll job gains likely to slow The faster pace of payroll job gains might normally be a more trustworthy gauge of labour market trends than the more volatile Labour Force Survey employment figures. The slowdown in real GDP growth... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weak first quarter won't stop the Fed hiking rates this year The Fed is still likely to raise its policy rate later this year. A September lift-off is the marginal favourite, but June and July are possibilities, if it becomes clear quickly that the first... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The 4.0% m/m rise in durable goods orders in March was entirely due to a sharp rise in transportation orders. The fall in core orders suggests that the outlook for business investment in equipment... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices should pick up Having fallen sharply since late-2014, we expect US steel prices to stabilise and pick up over the course of this year owing to resilient domestic demand. That said, our forecast also assumes that the... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar.) The fall in new home sales in March is more likely to be a temporary payback after strong growth in previous months rather than a sign that housing activity is starting to cool again. In any case... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
