Latin America Economics Update Latin America & Fed tightening: risks revisited Several economies in Latin America have large current account deficits that could leave them vulnerable as and when the Fed starts to raise interest rates. The risks in Brazil are, by now, well known... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed on track for September lift-off With the incoming data now showing a clear pick-up in real economic growth and possible signs of an acceleration in wage growth and core price inflation, we expect the Fed to begin hiking interest... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bounce back in household spending won't be repeated After a weather-related pause in the first quarter, household spending is soaring. Faster income growth and a potential drop in the saving rate could see second-quarter consumption grow by more than 5... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLTs surveys show labour market strength The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys illustrate that the bigger than expected gain in employment in May was no fluke. Labour market conditions are strengthening and wage growth will accelerate further. 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Homebuilding finally gets back on track Housing starts surged by 20% m/m to a seven-year high of 1.14m annualised in April, as homebuilders finally put the weather-related difficulties at the start of the year behind them. Looking ahead... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second quarter rebound unlikely to be convincing After a dismal turn in the first quarter of the year, the economy should perform somewhat better in the second quarter, but the pace of growth is likely to be unspectacular. With growth of no more... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The fact that the economy generated a surprisingly strong 58,900 jobs in May suggests that it is holding up against the oil price shock better than we had expected. This supports the Bank of Canada... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Back from the dead? The news last week that first-quarter productivity slumped while unit labour costs soared should be viewed with some scepticism, since the non-farm business sector figures are distorted by the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The 280,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, which was well above the 225,000 consensus forecast but bang in line with our own call, adds to the evidence that the US economy is regaining momentum... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Surge in German Bund yields unlikely to last Although the 10-year German Bund yield has risen significantly since late-April, we doubt it will continue to surge given the prospects for ECB policy and the probability of renewed safe-haven flows... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Strong US auto sales to boost PGMs demand We believe the prices of platinum group metals (PGMs) will benefit from increased autocatalyst demand. However, palladium is likely to outperform platinum due to the limited penetration of diesel cars... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Flagging economy will prompt more rate cuts The futures market indicates that most investors are now convinced by the Bank of Canada's view that the January interest rate cut will be enough to prevent the economy from being derailed by the... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) While April's slight pick-up in exports volumes might prompt suggestions that the economy began the second quarter on a stronger footing, the sharp decline in imports indicates that domestic demand... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks continued to fall last week. However, the drop was the smallest since stocks began declining at the start of May 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack US dollar strength undermines the price rally The S&P GSCI industrial metals index fell sharply in May and under-performed other commodities. Renewed strength in the dollar coupled with subdued Chinese economic data undermined investor sentiment... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The drop back in the trade deficit to $40.9bn in April, from $50.6bn, confirms that the spike in March was a temporary surge caused by the ending of the West Coast port dispute in February and... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
