Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Mar.) Although the rebound in manufacturing sales in March was stronger than expected, this mainly reflected volatility in transportation, with little evidence of any underlying improvement. Accordingly... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is there any hope for the price of US lumber? Weak US housing starts and high lumber imports are likely to be behind the large fall in the price of US lumber this year. But a rebound in starts over the coming months should support the price. 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is a rise in Treasury yields a threat to the US stock market? We are sceptical that a further sell-off in Treasuries would drive the US stock market down, as some are suggesting. Although we forecast that the 10-year US government bond yield will continue to... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Apr.) The rate of house price inflation edged down to 4.4% in April, from 4.7%, and the existing home sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that some further slowing is likely in the coming months. 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The continuing weakness of retail sales in April brings into question our working assumption that the soft patch through the winter months was largely due to the unseasonably cold temperatures in the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Promising signs from the mortgage market The sharp rise in home purchase mortgage applications, to a two-year high in April, was an encouraging sign that the market may finally be turning a corner after years of stagnation. Admittedly... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why the Gulf’s dollar pegs are here to stay The sharp fall in oil prices since the middle of last year has thrust the Gulf’s dollar pegs under the spotlight but there are plenty of reasons to think that the risk of currency devaluation remains... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Record current account deficit a cause for concern Canada's growing current account deficit probably hit a record high in the first quarter, as the impact of the recent slump in oil prices hit export revenues. The lower Canadian dollar will help to... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What’s holding first-time buyers back? There is no evidence to suggest that homeownership aspirations amongst young households have diminished in recent years. And some of the cyclical factors holding back demand have also eased sharply... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) Although employment declined by a larger than expected 19,700 in April, the details showing strong full-time gains was reassuring, as was the fact that the unemployment rate remained at 6.8%... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Fresh euro weakness should buoy German equities Although it has still been one of the best-performing developed world stock markets this year, the DAX index has come off the boil over the past month. We do not expect its recent weakness to continue... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slump in nominal business sales not a concern The slowdown in the annual growth rate of business sales is not a concern since sales are measured in nominal terms. That growth rate has been affected more by the slump in energy prices rather than... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) Although non-farm payrolls increased by a relatively healthy 223,000 and the unemployment rate edged down to a seven-year low of 5.4%, April's employment report was otherwise something of a mixed bag... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q1) The latest decline in the share of households suffering mortgage payment problems provides more evidence that the housing market is slowly normalising. To the extent that it encourages lenders to ease... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) The sharp rise in home purchase mortgage applications in April suggests that the market could finally be turning a corner after several years of stagnation. It’s early days yet, but the conditions... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) The widening of the merchandise trade deficit in March to C$3.0bn, from C$2.2bn, mostly reflected a decline in the terms of trade, whereas export and import volumes rebounded by a similar margin. For... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
