US Economics Weekly Fed lift-off won't be delayed by Greece or China Fed Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday this week couldn't have been better timed for those wondering whether Greece's potential exit from the euro would... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Home sales reach eight-year high Housing activity has strengthened in recent months. Indeed, gains in both new and existing home sales in May pushed total sales up to their highest level in eight years. Strong growth in jobs and... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Get ready for interest rate cut(s) Facing a larger than previously expected fallout from the oil price shock and a still misfiring manufacturing sector, there is a very strong chance that the Bank of Canada will cut rates from 0.75% to... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) The unexpected widening of the trade deficit in May is further evidence that, after contracting in the first quarter, the economy probably shrank further in the second quarter. In other words, Canada... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is Puerto Rico the next Greece? Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla's comment last week that "the debt is not payable" has raised fears that a Puerto Rico debt crisis could have a bigger impact on US financial markets than the crisis... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The modest rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $41.9bn in May, from $40.7bn, means that net exports are on track to be a very small drag on overall second-quarter GDP growth, which we still think... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) A slowdown in the monthly pace of price growth suggests that the CoreLogic index is finally falling back into line with other measures. After the rapid acceleration at the start of the year, we expect... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Economy unlikely to rebound from oil slump The Bank of Canada's latest Business Outlook Survey shows that not only is the fallout from the slump in oil prices still taking a heavy toll on the economy, but the pick-up in non-energy sectors... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fast escape from oil slump unlikely With the fallout from the oil price slump still taking its toll on the economy and manufacturing hobbling along, growth prospects look only marginally better now than at the start of the year. For the... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Higher rates will not derail the housing recovery The recent strength of housing activity suggests the market is well placed to cope with a gradual rise in interest rates. Indeed, with credit conditions gradually loosening and affordability very... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will GDP growth ever hit 3% again? As things stand now, GDP is on track for a 2.3% increase this year, which would be very similar to the growth rates achieved in 2012, 2013 and 2014. It appears that GDP growth is stuck in a rut. It is... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 223,000 increase in payroll employment in June was a bit weaker than we had been expecting, but is offset to some degree by the fall in the unemployment rate, to 5.3% from 5.5%. As such, we still... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The further modest rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 53.5 in June, from 52.8 in May, was exactly in line with our above consensus forecast and confirms that the outlook for industry is improving... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) Home purchase mortgage applications edged higher again in June despite another big rise in interest rates. The pace of growth has slowed, but we are hopeful that mortgage demand can make more... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update “Grexit” alone unlikely to deter the Fed from raising rates The Fed would, of course, be reluctant to hike rates for the first time since 2006 in the midst of another global financial crisis triggered by Greek exit from the euro. However, we do not expect... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The further rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to within touching distance of the eight-year high seen earlier this year suggests that the surge in real consumption in May... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
