US Housing Market Focus Will homebuilding ever return to the highs of 2006? We are forecasting housing starts to surge by almost 40% over the next few years, reaching 1.5m by the end of 2017. It’s possible that starts could rise even more rapidly in the short term as builders... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global financial conditions loose despite prospect of Fed hikes Yesterday’s FOMC statement and interest rate projections suggest that the US Fed is still on track to begin raising rates in September. Nevertheless, broader monetary conditions should remain highly... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The 0.4% m/m increase in May's consumer price index was almost entirely due to a 10.4% m/m rebound in gasoline prices. Core prices increased by a more modest 0.1% m/m last month, but the three-month... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EMs: risks revisited Yesterday’s statement by US Fed officials suggests that the FOMC is still on course to raise interest rates at September’s meeting. EM financial markets have taken this in their stride today and... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on track for a September lift-off As Fed officials left their interest rate projections for this year unchanged, it appears that the FOMC is still on course for a September lift-off. The 0.63% median of those projections implies that... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report After a sharp drop last week, the pace of the fall in crude oil stocks slowed this week. At the same time, there was a modest uptick in gasoline stocks, which are now in the upper half of their long... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) Despite the drop back in housing starts in May, the recent data show that homebuilders’ confidence in the housing recovery is growing. Coupled with mounting evidence of a second-quarter rebound in the... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in May reflects the ongoing contraction in the mining sector and the impact of the stronger dollar on manufacturers. 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The larger than expected decline in April's manufacturing sales suggests that the recent big gains in factory jobs were perhaps a head fake and that the economy began this quarter on a weak footing... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rebound won't revive economy The recent rebound in crude oil prices isn't enough to make new oil sands projects profitable again. With the list of cancelled projects growing with each passing day, we expect falling business... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (May) The rate of house price inflation edged up to 4.6% in May, from 4.4%, and the recent rebound in the existing home sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that is where it might remain over the rest of... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Myth of the weak consumer exposed The conventional wisdom is that consumers have remained unusually cautious during this recovery. But between the middle of last year and the middle of this year, consumption appears to have been... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Jun.) & PPI (May) The rebound in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index to 94.6 in June, from 90.7, was impressive given the surge in gasoline prices over the past few weeks. It appears that the US... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A macroeconomic approach to US stock market valuation The valuation of the US stock market does not appear as high when quantified with macroeconomic data as it does when a more conventional approach is taken. What’s more, we continue to think that the... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls (advanced economies) This note summarises our key calls for the advanced economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. Detailed projections (with specific numbers) are available in our regular... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The 1.2% m/m gain in May's retail sales may have been a bit below our own 1.5% forecast, but the underlying details of the report are actually a lot stronger than we were expecting. 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
