US Economics Update “Grexit” alone unlikely to deter the Fed from raising rates The Fed would, of course, be reluctant to hike rates for the first time since 2006 in the midst of another global financial crisis triggered by Greek exit from the euro. However, we do not expect... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The further rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to within touching distance of the eight-year high seen earlier this year suggests that the surge in real consumption in May... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) The unexpected 0.1% m/m decline in April's GDP and slight downward revisions to earlier figures suggest that the economy likely slipped into a recession in the second quarter. With the fallout from... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Apr.) The continued slowdown in the Case-Shiller measure of house price growth seems odd when other indicators of housing activity have strengthened markedly and the wider economy is growing at a healthy... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Weakness in PGM prices should prove temporary Expectations of a strong increase in mine supply,coupled with abundant above-ground stocks,have prompted many analysts to revise down theirforecasts for platinum and palladium prices thisyear and... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates again? Although there is limited scope to reduce interest rates further, the hit from lower oil prices on the economy is taking a heavier toll than widely acknowledged. Without any offset from the non-energy... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Why hasn't the fading fiscal drag boosted GDP growth? With the best will in the world towards the anti-austerians, the bigger fiscal squeeze in 2013 had amuch smaller impact on the economy's performance than many feared, while the more recentfading of... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Model points to another big gain in payrolls Our econometric model points to a 290,000 gainin non-farm payrolls in May and, as a result, wealso expect the unemployment rate to edge downto 5.4%. 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The annual growth rates of broad money and bank loans slowed a little in May, but that is mainly due to base effects. Furthermore, our reconstructed measure of M3 still increased by a relatively... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) Strong growth in both new and existing sales in May pushed total home sales up to an eight-year high. This confirms that the renewed strength in the labour market and consumer spending are feeding... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Evidence mounts of a big second-quarter rebound There is now a wide mix of evidence showing that, after a very weak start to the year, the economy is booming again. May is turning out to be a particularly strong month: Existing home sales hit a six... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The 1.8% m/m fall in headline durable goods orders in May was largely due to a 35.3% m/m decline in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft orders component. 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) Existing home sales rebounded to their highest level in almost six years in May, showing that the boosts to housing activity from strong jobs growth and looser credit conditions have outweighed any... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising jobs vacancy rate a lagging indicator The increase in the national jobs vacancy rate over the past year suggests that the economy has withstood the oil price shock. Closer examination, however, reveals that this measure lags economic... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rates to rise more rapidly than Fed's projections imply Our working assumption is still that the Fed will end up raising the fed funds rate three times this year, taking it to a range of between 0.75% and 1.00% by year-end. But we wouldn't be completely... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) While May's inflation figures are consistent with the Bank of Canada's forecast, the incoming data suggest that the real economy is still underperforming. If economic growth undershoots the Bank's... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
