Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) The surprisingly large narrowing in June's trade deficit was driven by a rebound in export volumes and is a positive sign for the economy. Considering the mixed performance of exports lately, however... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (June) The widening in the trade deficit to $43.8bn in June, from an upwardly revised $40.9bn in May, is more or less as the BEA assumed in its GDP estimate and therefore doesn’t point to a revision to the 2... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) The upward trend in mortgage interest rates seems to be holding back mortgage applications. However, provided the labour market continues to strengthen as we expect, looser credit conditions and... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Obama and the EPA escalate the “war on coal” The rules set out by the US Environmental Protection Agency should ultimately serve to reduce demand for coal and put downward pressure on prices, even if there are lengthy legal challenges. 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) Although the CoreLogic measure of annual house price growth increased again in June, the underlying pace of gains has slowed since the start of the year. As a result, the index is finally falling back... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The modest fall in the ISM manufacturing index suggests that the factory sector is continuing to suffer the effects of the dollar’s appreciation. Nonetheless, the survey is still consistent with... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed more confident, second-quarter rebound confirmed The Fed's more upbeat tone on economic conditions in the latest FOMC policy statement was a long way from it ringing the alarm bells on a September lift-off. Nevertheless, it still suggests that the... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing shortage nothing more than a myth A housing shortage has been determined by the housing industry as the key explanation for record high house prices. While this interpretation appears to have caught on in certain circles, the broader... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (May) May's GDP contracted by 0.2% m/m, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, thereby providing more evidence that the economy slipped into a recession in the first half of the year. With oil prices... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market slack continues to shrink Our econometric model points to a 250,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July, although we suspect that the unemployment rate remained at 5.3%, as the labour force rebounds. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2, 1st Estimate) The second-quarter GDP data support the Fed’s more upbeat tone on economic conditions and suggests that the economy could cope with higher interest rates. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update High inventories & strong US dollar to wilt wheat prices The price of US wheat has been on a rollercoaster over the past two months. However, with high global stocks and a stronger US dollar, we think prices will trend down over the remainder of the year. 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Looser credit conditions will support mortgage recovery Most evidence suggests that credit conditions are loosening, albeit very gradually. As it becomes clearer that the housing and wider economic recoveries are strong enough to cope with a gradual rise... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Key housing markets won't defy gravity for much longer The Vancouver and Toronto housing markets appear to be enjoying a revival of late, in contrast to most other markets in Canada. But with labour market conditions set to deteriorate this year and... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update China and US, not Iran, most important for oil prices Oversupply and the looming return of exports from Iran are undoubtedly weighing on oil prices. However, prices are likely to continue to be more influenced by sentiment towards commodities in general... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The sharp fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in July, to 90.9 from 99.8 in June (revised down from 101.4), points to an easing in consumption growth in the second half of the... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
