US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monthly (Jul.) The growth rate of our broad M3 monetary aggregate rebounded to a robust 5.2% y/y in July, suggesting that there is little risk of a sustained deflation or a marked slowdown in real economic growth... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (Jun./Jul.) New home sales reversed part of June’s sharp fall in July, and alongside a surge in existing sales that has led to the tightest market conditions in a decade. Surprisingly, those tight conditions have... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in August more than offset last month’s sharp fall and is consistent with consumption growth remaining healthy in the third quarter... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US economy not at risk from modest China slowdown Central European bonds and currencies have been remarkably resilient during the recent turmoil in the global financial markets. In contrast, Turkish markets have been hit by fresh concerns about the... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Sinking commodity prices more bad news for Canada The turmoil in global financial markets, particularly the renewed weakness in commodity prices, is more bad news for Canada’s struggling economy. The timing of the Federal election in October may... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the Fed bow to market turmoil and delay rate hikes? There are no signs of any major downturn in the US economy, economic growth in China still appears to slowing rather than collapsing and emerging markets are not about to endure a repeat of the 1997... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Don’t bet on further big falls in the Canadian dollar Markets still appear to be speculating on further declines in the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar but, after a 20% decline over the past 12 months, we believe that there is little scope for any... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed has set a pretty low bar for a rate hike The projections made by Fed officials back in June indicated that they were setting a pretty low bar for hiking interest rates later this year. Nevertheless, despite those low expectations, officials... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.) Although July's annual core inflation rate nudged up to 2.4% from 2.3%, the Bank of Canada likely couldn't care less. With the economy in a mild recession and falling oil and other industrial... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) Against expectations, existing home sales rose once again in July, to their highest level since the start of 2007. But with the months’ supply of existing homes dropping to its lowest level in a... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy struggling to escape recession Since oil prices first began to fall last year, Canada’s economic performance has gone from mediocre to dismal, culminating in a mild recession in the first half of this year. With oil prices tumbling... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The very muted 0.1% m/m gains in both headline and core CPI in July will certainly give the Fed pause for thought in whether to raise interest rates or not at the next FOMC meeting in mid September... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Recovery in drilling activity likely to be temporary We doubt that the rise in the number of active drilling rigs in the US over the last few weeks will continue for much longer, despite improvements in efficiency. A renewed decline should weigh on US... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) The recovery in housing starts continues, as builders respond to improving demandfor new-build homes. The expiry of a tax-break in New York City has distorted thebuilding permit data but other leading... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inventories are the wildcard for third-quarter GDP growth After an unexpected surge at the end of the second quarter, inventories are shaping up to be the big wildcard in third-quarter GDP growth. We expect inventories to subtract 0.5% points, with third... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Recession debate losing its focus Although the economy might only be suffering the mildest of recessions, the bigger and far more important point often lost in the debate is that the economy is clearly underperforming its growth... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
