Canada Economics Weekly Puzzling weakness in exports likely to persist The puzzling weakness in non-energy exports most likely boils down to a lack of competitiveness, even after taking into account the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Unless the value of the... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Domestic demand growth poised to accelerate The unexpected decline in June's retail sales was a disappointment and, more generally, the rebound in underlying sales in the second quarter has been weaker than the turnaround last year, when... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The slightly bigger than expected 0.3% m/m increase in core consumer prices in June doesn't materially reduce the odds of an additional rate cut by the Bank of Canada later this year. Core inflation... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) The strong rise in housing starts in June suggests that the home building recovery is building momentum after recent volatility. With demand for new homes strengthening and home builder confidence at... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The 0.3 m/m increase in June's consumer price index, which was partly due to a 3.4%m/m increase in gasoline prices, brought the brief period of "deflation" to an end. The annual inflation rate edged... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Subdued demand will undermine cocoa prices The latest European and North American cocoa grinding data continue to point to subdued demand. Combined with a rebound in Ghanaian production, we think that the price of cocoa will fall this year. 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (May) The continued weakness in manufacturing sales volumes in May is further evidence that the non-energy economy is very unlikely to pull the economy out of its oil-induced slump anytime soon. Accordingly... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to cut rates again As we expected, the Bank of Canada lowered its key policy rate from 0.75% to 0.50% today, admitting that the economy fell into a mild recession in the first half of the year. We have been warning that... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks began falling again last week, but the decline was small, barely making up for the earlier unexpected rises. What’s more, gasoline stocks barely moved despite the US driving season... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jun.) The 0.3% increase industrial production in June reflects in large part a rebound in the mining sector, which has struggled so far this year. 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen reiterates that lift-off still likely later this year Fed Chair Janet Yellen's latest comments don't change our view that the Fed is still on track for a September lift-off. Furthermore, we expect rising wage growth and core inflation to trigger a much... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun 15) The growth rate of our broad M3 monetary aggregate slowed slightly to 5.0% y/y in June, reflecting the ongoing impact from the Fed's decision to taper its asset purchases last year. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Labour shortages won’t derail homebuilding recovery Recent survey data suggest that the recovery in housing starts would have been stronger if not for shortages of labour within some specialised trades. But although a scarcity of labour may be... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun.) The rate of house price inflation rose to 5.1% in June, from 4.6% in May, and the recent rebound in the home sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that it may accelerate to 6.0% soon. The pick-up... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The 0.3% m/m decline in retail sales in June is disappointing but, given the strength of sales in earlier months, it still looks like real consumption increased by a relatively healthy 2.7% annualised... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Decline in the participation rate is mostly structural The decline in the labour participation rate to a near 40-year low of 62.6% in June largely reflects structural factors, such as the aging population, rather than cyclical weakness. 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
